NFL PICKS! Week One

Among this week's storylines are a Super Bowl rematch on Thursday, a head coach facing his former team for the first time Sunday, and the first all-California NFC West matchup since 1994 on Monday night.

Lions head coach Jim Caldwell will return to Indianapolis Sunday evening. Caldwell spent three seasons leading the Colts, including a Super Bowl loss following the 2009 season. (Matthew Healy/UPI)

As always, home teams shown in bold.

Thursday, September 8

Carolina 27, Denver 21
This will be a great test to see how each conference champion has responded since Super Bowl 50. The Broncos have moved on at the quarterback position, and the Panthers are starting two rookie cornerbacks on defense.

Sunday, September 11

Green Bay 31, Jacksonville 21
The Packers' return to the top of the NFC North begins with a trip to Jacksonville. The Jags, though improved from last year, should be no match for Mike McCarthy's crew.

Kansas City 33, San Diego 19
It will be the start of a long and disappointing season for the Chargers in one of four intra-divisional matchups to take place in week one.

Oakland 29, New Orleans 26
The X-factor Sunday in New Orleans? The state of Louisiana experienced its worst natural disaster since Katrina this summer. If the Saints can repeat the emotional high of their first game back in the Superdome after the 2005 hurricane, it would be difficult for any visiting team to win.

Cincinnati 26, Jets 21
There may be a rematch of this game come January. Both teams are potential playoff squads and this game will be an early test for everyone involved.

Philadelphia 30, Cleveland 23
Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz's first start will be against the softball Cleveland Browns. As long as Wentz can rely on the talent around him, it may not be pretty, but his debut will be a win.

Minnesota 26, Tennessee 19
Sam Bradford has been, at best, an above-average quarterback in his six NFL seasons. He will need to learn the Vikings' system incredibly quickly to defeat an up-and-coming Titans squad. Of all my picks this week, I am probably least confident in this one.

Houston 29, Chicago 20
2014 MVP snub JJ Watt is returning from injury to play this game. He will not be 100 percent, but a 70 percent JJ Watt is still better than 95 percent of the rest of the league's defenders.

Buffalo 27, Baltimore 24
I know at least one talking head says this every year, but this year may be Buffalo's best shot to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999. To prove I'm not totally stupid in my analysis, the Bills should win against a Ravens team that could either be improving or past its prime.

Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 21
The Falcons could challenge Carolina for the NFC South crown, but more likely will be fighting for a wild card spot come season's end. This game might be crucial in that race, because the Bucs will be an improved team in 2016 as well.

Seattle 35, Miami 19
This is the only week one game in which the betting line is in double-digits. Vegas currently has the Seahawks as 10-1/2 point favorites against the Dolphins, and I'm not even sure it will be that close.

Giants 26, Dallas 23
Can they just give the Egg Bowl trophy to whichever quarterback wins this game? Ole Miss product and 13-year NFL veteran Eli Manning will propel his Giants to an early NFC East lead against Cowboys rookie signal-caller Dak Prescott, a Mississippi State alum.

Indianapolis 26, Detroit 24
As I mentioned previously, this will be Jim Caldwell's first visit to Indianapolis since he took over as Detroit head coach in 2014. Caldwell's Lions will come away disappointed as Andrew Luck and the Colts begin to right the ship that took a step in the wrong direction last year.

Arizona 31, New England 24
This might be the most entertaining game of week one, and a possible Super Bowl LI preview. I joked in the preseason about the intricate plot of Bill Belichick, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck to get one of Arizona's best players off the field for Sunday night's game, but reality will very soon set in. The Cardinals' secondary will tear apart Jimmy Garoppolo to get to 1-0.

Monday, September 12

Pittsburgh 29, Washington 23
The Steelers will challenge Cincinnati for the AFC North title, beating potential NFC East champ Washington along the way. This will be the more entertaining Monday night game, despite the manifold stories surrounding the nightcap game.

Los Angeles 23, San Francisco 17
If you're struggling to stay awake during the second half of Monday's doubleheader, it's not your fault. After the obligatory "the Rams are back in Los Angeles" feature and 30 cameras focused on San Francisco's backup quarterback during the national anthem, this game will likely become a snoozefest.