11 November 2013

Instant reactions: week 10

We're already through with 10 weeks of the NFL season? Here are recaps and reax for your viewing pleasure.

Minnesota 34, Washington 27
And here I was thinking the Redskins had a shot. They practically have to win out now.

Seattle 33, Atlanta 10
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks got their revenge for the NFC divisional round. Of course, this Atlanta team isn't quite the Falcons squad of 2012.

Detroit 21, Chicago 19
I'm a little surprised Chicago hung in this one. But it's a division game, so you know both teams had to give it their all.

Philadelphia 27, Green Bay 13
Good things happen when Nick Foles touches the ball. Of course, if memory serves me correctly, Mike Vick started off the season really well, too.

St. Louis 38, Indianapolis 8
Holy Luck! Andrew's boys were utterly decimated at home. Looks like they didn't really make plans for this one.
Giants 24, Oakland 20
As poorly as the Giants' season started, New York has won three straight and is tight in the NFC East hunt.

Pittsburgh 23, Buffalo 10
Nobody thought Buffalo would win this game before the season started, but I'm not sure anyone would have expected the two teams to be a combined 6-12 coming out of it.
Jacksonville 29, Tennessee 27
Jake Locker got hurt again, and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for a 111 passer rating in his stead. Something is wrong with this Titans team, and it's not the quarterback position.

Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 17 (OT)
The Bengals are trying really hard not to win the AFC North.

Carolina 10, San Francisco 9
This will be the New England-Indianapolis or San Francisco-Dallas of the 2010s. These are two good teams that have bright futures. It will be fun to watch.

Denver 28, San Diego 20
Peyton Manning has thrown 34 touchdowns in nine games. This puts him breaking Tom Brady's single season record in the second quarter of his week 15 game. He's currently on pace for 60 touchdowns this season.
Arizona 27, Houston 24
Case Keenum has a bright future. His present is currently being diminished by Wade Philips.
New Orleans 49, Dallas 17
A tale of two Panthers: Eastern Illinois product Sean Payton just coached a league-record offensive performance. Eastern Illinois product Tony Romo was 42 percent passing with just 10 completions for 128 yards.
Tampa Bay 22, Miami 19
The happiest team in the AFC tonight is Baltimore. They just took a one-game lead on literally everyone else in the hunt for the final wild card spot, because literally everyone else lost.

Clayton's fantasy update:
It was a spectacular fantasy football weekend. Fear The Llama defeated Turtle Power and the league admin by 91.8 points to take first place in the division in the adjusted league. Drew Brees led the way with 35 points, and every single slot besides tight end earned double-digits.

Romo No-mo wasn't quite as dominant, but got a solid rivalry win over the Leningrad Red Army. No-Mo swept the Red Army for the first time since the two team's owners began playing fantasy football against each other five or six years ago. The Orange M's hold a 1.5-game advantage for second place in the division in the standard league, with the head-to-head tiebreak over Leningrad should it come to that.

06 November 2013

NFL midseason report

Every NFL team has now played through the halfway point of its schedule. Now that it's midseason, it's time to dole out my annual midseason predictions.

Final Standings

AFC East
New England 12-4
New York Jets 9-7
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 5-11
Explanation: Tom Brady just gets it done year after year. He will lead the Patriots to their 10th division title in the last 11 years. The first half of the season has proved successful for the Jets, who will fight for a wild card spot up until week 17. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Miami's offseason gambles did not quite pay off as well as the team hoped. Buffalo will compete when EJ Manuel returns, but it will be too little, too late as the Bills finish in the cellar.

AFC North
Cincinnati 11-5
Baltimore 8-8
Cleveland 7-9
Pittsburgh 5-11
Explanation: The Bengals already seem to have wrapped up the AFC North. The Ravens and Browns will stay competitive in the playoff hunt until the last week or so, but their early seasons will end up costing them. The Steelers' season took a massive dive; the team will need to restructure after a last-place finish.

AFC South
Indianapolis 12-4
Tennessee 9-7 (wild card)
Houston 5-11
Jacksonville 1-15
Explanation: The Colts proved Saturday night that nothing will keep them from rising back to the top of the AFC South. The Titans will earn their first of a string of wild card berths by beating out the Jets via tiebreak in the final week of the season. Houston plays a tough second half; they will be competitive for a while, but will simmer down to a 5-11 mark by season's end. Don't expect the Jags to match the 2008 Lions, but they'd be the team to do so if anyone goes 0-16 in 2013.

AFC West
Denver 13-3
Kansas City 11-5 (wild card)
San Diego 8-8
Oakland 4-12
The Chiefs finally will play the good teams on their schedule. Expect a losing second half of their season, but Kansas City will still win enough to reach the wild card round. Denver will lose in Kansas City and New England, but will hold on to win the division and give Peyton Manning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Chargers won't go home happy, but Mike McCoy has the building blocks on which to build a 2014-15 playoff team. The Dennis Allen era will be over in Oakland after the Raiders put together yet another 10-plus-loss season.

NFC East
Dallas 9-7
Washington 9-7
Philadelphia 6-10
New York Giants 4-12
Explanation: Every team in the NFC East will play a tough second-half schedule. It is really only because the Cowboys lead now that Dallas will represent this once-great division in the playoffs. The Redskins are beginning to find their stride, but RGIII's squad will eventually find themselves on the outside looking in. The Eagles will begin their fall after facing a bye-rested San Francisco team next week.  The Giants' season was over before it really even began.

NFC North
Detroit 13-3
Chicago 9-7
Green Bay 9-7
Minnesota 2-14
Explanation: The Lions are by far the only healthy team that's competitive in the NFC North. Over the next three weeks, they will use an easy second half to pull ahead of the injury-plagued Bears and Packers and then will ride out the rest of the season on top. Chicago will sweep Green Bay to earn the second-place spot, and the Vikings will be looking for answers after pulling a reverse-Kansas City.

NFC South
Carolina 11-5
New Orleans 11-5 (wild card)
Atlanta 4-12
Tampa Bay 2-14
Explanation: Thanks to the Falcons upsetting New Orleans in the Georgia Dome in week 12, the Panthers will win a tiebreak over the Saints to win the NFC South in a shocker. I think Carolina is playing too well to lose more than two games in the second half. The Saints are struggling on the road; despite a perfect 8-0 in the SuperDome they will find themselves on the road in the wild card round. The win over New Orleans will be the Falcons' only bright spot of the season. Tampa will win two late games after firing Greg Schiano and enter search mode as soon as the season closes.

NFC West
Seattle 14-2
San Francisco 11-5
Arizona 9-7
St. Louis 5-11
Explanation: Tampa was a giant fluke for the Seahawks. They'll be fine. Bruce Arians will keep the Cards competitive, but a loss to Philadelphia will cost them a shot at the NFC West's third playoff spot. The 49ers will earn the only wild card berth from the West, and Arizona will be left watching. The Rams are just beginning to struggle; Jeff Fisher could possibly see himself out of work once again at the end of the year.

Playoff scenarios

AFC1- Denver
AFC2- New England
AFC3- Indianapolis
AFC4- Cincinnati
AFC5- Kansas City
AFC6- Tennessee

NFC1- Seattle
NFC2- Detroit
NFC3- Carolina
NFC4- Dallas
NFC5- New Orleans
NFC6- San Francisco

Wild Card Round:
AFC3 Indianapolis 42, AFC6 Tennessee 20
It won't be pretty for the Titans, who haven't made the playoffs under the current regime or with practically any of the current roster. Luck and the Colts are ready for a third game in the division rivalry this season, and will roll over Tennessee.

AFC4 Cincinnati 26, AFC5 Kansas City 13
The Chiefs will put up a fight early, but the Bengals have been to the playoffs before and know what it takes to win.

NFC5 New Orleans 37, NFC4 Dallas 10
The Saints will come angry after losing the division. Drew Brees will throw for 500 yards and four touchdowns as cameras everywhere will show Tony Romo flustered on the sideline throughout the game.

NFC3 Carolina 36, NFC6 San Francisco 30 (OT)
Third-year superstars Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick will go blow-for-blow in the most exciting wild card game of 2014. Cam will win it, fittingly, on a 13-yard bootleg rushing touchdown in the waning seconds of overtime. The Panthers' miracle season continues.

Divisional Round:
AFC3 Indianapolis 30, AFC2 New England 27
Try as he might, Tom Brady will not be able to overcome four different receivers' rookie mistakes. An Aaron Dobson bobbled pass will set Adam Vinatieri and the Colts up in field goal range as the clock ticks down. Unlike Peyton Manning, Luck will not feel the sting of losing to Brady in the playoffs.

AFC4 Cincinnati 41, AFC1 Denver 34
Peyton Manning's record-breaking season will come to a sudden end when he watches veteran safety Chris Crocker return an interception 63 yards into the end zone for the game's final score. Andy Dalton and the Bengals will move on.

NFC3 Carolina 24, NFC2 Detroit 18
The Panthers defense will step up to the challenge of Stafford, Megatron and the Lions. The Lions will suffer from ten weeks of weak competition and not be prepared to handle Carolina. Newton once again will advance.

NFC1 Seattle 53, NFC5 New Orleans 35
Remember the 12th Man coming to play when the 11-5 Saints paid a visit to the 7-9 Seahawks? It will be even more humiliating for New Orleans this time around as the Seahawks are decidedly a better team in 2013.

AFC Championship: 3-Indianapolis 21, Cincinnati 6
Ultimately, this game will come down to the better defense. Robert Mathis and the Colts D will step up and force Andy Dalton into several ill-fated decisions. Luck will do a better job of managing the game, and will reach the Super Bowl in his second year as a pro quarterback.

NFC Championship: 1-Seattle 33, 3-Carolina 24
Not even Cameron Newton can get past the 12th Man. Seattle rides the home wave straight to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XLVIII: Indianapolis 24, Seattle 16
The next generation of NFL football will officially be introduced February 2, 2014 when future Hall of Famers Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck meet for the first of three times in the Super Bowl. Just as in the regular season preview, Luck will draw first championship blood and become the first quarterback drafted in the historic class of 2012 to win a Super Bowl. Chuck Pagano, just a year ago fighting to defeat cancer, will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in the cold New York air.

Postseason awards

Offensive Player of the Year: Peyton Manning
When all is said and done, Manning will likely have every significant single-season passing record. He is by far the most deserving man for this award. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Justin Houston
Houston has been putting together one of the most outstanding seasons this year on one of this year's most outstanding defenses. Robert Mathis will finish a close second, but Houston will beat the Colt out. 

Comeback Player of the Year: Cam Newton
After fighting a sophomore slump, Newton will lead his team to the playoffs in 2013. That's a stellar comeback if ever there was one. 

Rookie of the Year-Offense: Geno Smith
There are a handful of players who are worthy for this award, most notably Keenan Allen, Eddie Lacy and Kenbrell Thompkins. But ultimately, Geno is most responsible for his team's success in 2013, which is why he will stand out among the rest. 

Rookie of the Year-Defense: Kiko Alonso
If it wasn't for Vontaze Burfict's oft-fined play, the Bengals 'backer would be the clear choice. Despite Buffalo's subpar record, Alonso has been very impressive during his inaugural season. 

Most Valuable Player: Tom Brady
Have you seen the group of guys he's been playing with? Without Brady, the Patriots are one of the bottom two teams in the AFC East. You can't get more valuable than that.

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid
Yes, the Chiefs will cool down in the second half. But a nine-win improvement is spectacular in the NFL. Chuck Pagano, Marvin Lewis, Bruce Arians and Ron Rivera should all get consideration, but Reid will be the best man for the award. 

03 November 2013

Instant reactions: Week nine

My reactions from the ninth week of the NFL season. 

Miami 22, Cincinnati 20 (OT)
Just when the Bengals were a lock in my mind to be one of the two teams in the AFC Championship, they lose via the rare overtime safety. Not sure what to make of that. 

Tennessee 28, St. Louis 21
The Titans are finally back on track. And Chris Johnson had a Chris Johnson-like day for the first time in far too long.

Kansas City 23, Buffalo 13
The Chiefs keep rolling. Now they have a bye week to prepare for the game of the season at Denver, KC's first true test of 2013. 

Jets 26, New Orleans 20
The Jets got kicked bad last week. What more motivation did Rex Ryan need? Oh, wait...

Carolina 34, Atlanta 10
The Panthers certainly look like a playoff team right now. 

Dallas 27, Minnesota 23
Until they get this Freeman/Cassel/Ponder situation figured out, the Vikings are always a beatable team. 

Washington 30, San Diego 24 (OT)
After a slow start, the Redskins have put together a couple of solid games. 

Seattle 27, Tampa Bay 24 (OT)
They say the good teams find a way to win, and the losers find a way to lose. This game is the textbook example. 

Philadelphia 49, Oakland 20
So, the Chip Kelly offense works on the west coast, but nowhere else. 

Cleveland 24, Baltimore 18
The Cincinnati Bengals love that Cleveland is keeping them in charge of the AFC North. The rest of the division? Not so much. 

New England 55, Pittsburgh 31
Leading 41-31 with the ball and five minutes to go, you would think the Patriots would grind the ball and burn the clock. Nope, eighty yard bomb from Brady to Aaron Dobson. The Patriots have no dignity. 

Indianapolis 27, Houston 24
Leading 7-0 in the first quarter, Houston faced first-and-one inside the Colts' 20. Take the points while you're ahead, right? Nope, Ben Tate gets stuffed and Indy ends up with a three-point win. This one play, not Kubiak collapsing or Luck's fourth-quarter brilliance, was responsible for the game's result. 

Chicago 27, Green Bay 20
Things just got interesting among the league's oldest three-way rivalry. The NFC North is officially anyone's game. 

Clayton's fantasy update:
Fear The Llama continued its winning ways, using 20-point performances from Drew Brees, Stevan Ridley and Gio Bernard to cruise past Team Yandow and reach 5-4 on the season. 

The Romo No-mo Broncos had a bye week, meaning it was up to Andy Dalton (averaging 27 points over the last three weeks) and Golden Tate (coming off 21 points in week eight) to cover for Peyton and Demaryius. The two combined for eight points, and No-mo dropped a crucial game against division-leading Team Underwood. The orange M's stay in second place, but are now only half a game ahead of third-place Leningrad. A crucial match against the Red Army next week could determine who gets to play in the playoffs, and who will ride the consolation ladder. 

A special note on Richie Incognito
I saw an interview in which Dolphins linebacker Cameron Wake discusses several things NFL veterans will do to "initiate" rookies, so to speak. I agree that things like wacky haircuts, dinner bills and laundry duties are a part of any group's "welcome to the club" package, and that's completely OK. 

What's not OK is a veteran player basically demeaning a younger player in such insensitive terms as Incognito seems to have, and death threats, joking or otherwise, should be completely off-limits. 

This is the latest in a long, long line of issues over Richie Incognito's career. In my modest opinion, Mister Incognito needs a long break from football and, likely, some psychological help.