29 September 2016

NFL PICKS! Week Four

Last Week: 7-9
Year to date: 28-20 (.583)

(Home team denoted in bold. Bye week teams: Philadelphia and Green Bay)

Defensive end Everson Griffen and the Vikings are the toast of the NFC through three weeks. (Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press)
Thursday, September 29

Cincinnati (1-2) 28, Miami (1-2) 23
It's been a tough start for the Bengals, but they should get back on track with a hard-fought Thursday night win against the struggling Dolphins. If Miami does win, it may be on the back of receiver Jarvis Landry.

Sunday, October 2

Indianapolis (1-2) 30, Jacksonville (0-3) 24 (Game in London)
Jacksonville will eventually get a win. They have now played close games against both Green Bay and Baltimore. The Colts, hoping to avenge a 51-16 loss in Jacksonville near the end of last season, will come out with a little more aggression than normal in this divisional showdown across the pond.

New England (3-0) 24, Buffalo (1-2) 19
After firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman following a 37-31 loss to the Jets, the Bills promptly walloped NFC West favorite Arizona. Go figure. They still don't have a chance against the Patriots, who hold a 23-2 advantage over the teams' 25 previous meetings.

Houston (2-1) 21, Tennessee (1-2) 16
These two AFC South rivals have each scored a total of 42 points, tied for worst in the league. Even without 2014 should-have-been-MVP JJ Watt, Houston has the better defense of the two teams and thus should extend its winning streak against the Titans to five games.

Detroit (1-2) 30, Chicago (0-3) 21
In the snoozefest of the week, the Lions will get back to .500 after beating the listless Bears. If Jay Cutler is still the Bears' starting quarterback (is he? The Bears don't even warrant research at this point) it's a miracle.

Panthers (1-2) 31, Atlanta (2-1) 29
The Falcons have the best offense in the league at the moment, and the Panthers have the league's second-best defense. As last year's Panthers can tell you, when the matchup is tilted in this way, the team with the better defense usually wins.

Seattle (2-1) 24, Jets (1-2) 16
Neither of these teams have been overly impressive. The Seahawks do have a better record, and have been more successful in the past five years than the Jets. The experience should be enough to get Seattle to 3-1.

Baltimore (3-0) 26, Oakland (2-1) 21
Jack Del Rio's bold coaching decision gave the Raiders the win to start the season. His conservative coaching decision to punt on fourth-and-one inside enemy territory almost cost the Raiders the game last week. Regardless, the Raiders are 2-1 and playing in, at least according to win-loss records, a battle of heavyweights in Baltimore. The Ravens will get to 4-0 with a hard-fought win.

Washington (1-2) 33, Cleveland (0-3) 24
If last week's missed field goal after an interception against Miami doesn't prove that God hates the Cleveland Browns, I don't know what will.

Denver (3-0) 34, Tampa Bay (1-2) 21
Fun fact: Each of the last six times these teams have played, the point differential has been no more than nine points. I would not be in the least surprised if that happens again Sunday.

Arizona (1-2) 31, Los Angeles (2-1) 19
The Los Angeles Rams finally scored their first touchdown since 1994 last week, and added on four more as an interest payment. That was against the Bucs, though, and Arizona's defense will come to play in a division showdown.

Dallas (2-1) 29, San Francisco (1-2) 23
The last time Levi's Stadium hosted a 49ers game, San Francisco blew out the Rams on Monday Night Football. Expectations have set in, and the 49ers and Cowboys now are exactly where they thought they'd be in the league standings. This won't have the luster of the 80s and 90s showdowns, but it still should be a good game.

San Diego (1-2) 35, New Orleans (0-3) 26
This was the runner-up to snoozefest of the week, but at least you'll get to see Drew Brees throw a billion touchdowns against his old team and still lose.

Pittsburgh (2-1) 24, Kansas City (2-1) 23
This will be a surprisingly good Sunday Night Football pairing, provided the Steelers don't come out completely flat as they did against Philly last week. Good news for Pittsburgh fans, the Steelers are 22-6 in the regular season in the Mike Tomlin era when playing at home after a loss.

Monday, October 3

Minnesota (3-0) 26, Giants (2-1) 17
Few things have been as exciting to watch this football season as Minnesota's defense (who have unexplainably resided on my fantasy football bench each of the first three weeks of the season). The Vikings' 26 points against the Giants will consist of two offensive touchdowns, one defensive touchdown, a safety, and a field goal which will naturally be set up by a fumble recovery. In other words, the Minnesota offense will win a tight 14-12 contest against the Minnesota defense.

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