Indy and San Diego were both teams in need of quarterbacks in this fateful year of 1998. Two finalists in the Heisman Trophy vote won by Michigan's Charles Woodson (the first and only defensive player to win the award) were incredibly talented quarterbacks. Peyton Manning, the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy that year, was the son of a former NFL quarterback, Archie (and the brother of future QB Eli), and a stud from the orange and white of the University of Tennessee. Ryan Leaf, who finished third in the voting, was a incredibly talented prospect out of Washington State University. Peyton, after famously telling the Colts, "if you don't pick me, I'm gonna whoop your butt for the next fifteen years," was selected first overall and to date has won a record four NFL MVP awards and been to two Super Bowls, winning MVP honors in Super Bowl XLI. Ryan Leaf, on the other hand, was drafted second by the Bolts and was tossed around the league for four years before calling it quits (and kindly asking that you don't talk to him, alright?).
Fast forwarding to the present. Two quarterbacks with huge NFL potential are in the market (and I'm not talking about Cameron "Scam" Newton, he's an entirely different story). One of them didn't make Heisman waves after his team finished with an under-the-radar two-loss season, the other finished second in Heisman voting. The first, Ryan Mallett, led the Arkansas Razorbacks to a 10-2 record, finishing second in the SEC West and earning a Sugar Bowl berth. Andrew Luck, the guy most predict to go first, led his Stanford Cardinal to an 11-1 mark, a second-place finish in the Pac-10, and a spot in the Orange Bowl.
So why do I think the Panthers should take Mallett?
For starters, look at the last names. Luck and Leaf. Mallett and Manning. Similar, no? Plus, like Mr. Leaf, Andrew went to a west-coast school, while Mallett and Mr. Manning both went to schools in the Southeast Conference. I've always liked Ryan Mallett as a pro prospect. More than anything, I've just got a gut feeling Ryan Mallett will make a better NFL quarterback than Andrew Luck.
Which brings us to the question, if Mallett is drafted first, how far will Andrew Luck fall?
Looking at the likely draft order as of now, neither of the next three teams (Denver, Cincinnati, and Buffalo, all 4-11) look like they would bite at a QB. The Broncos traded up to get Timmy T. in the first round last year, and unless the new coaching staff wants to make a big splash and rearrange the whole Denver team (again), there is no way they'd go for Luck. The Bengals' Carson Palmer, with a good coach, should have several more good years ahead of him, so unless they want QB insurance, Cincy will likely pass on a high-ranked QB like Luck. Buffalo seems to think it's found its quarterback of the future in Ryan Fitzpatrick, but a potential 4-12 season might rearrange the Bills' draft thoughts.
But that's a big MIGHT.
Anyhue, should Denver, Cincy, and Buffalo all shockingly upset their opponents (San Diego, Baltimore, and the Jets, respectively), that opens up a realm of 5-win teams that might get the second pick in the 2011 draft....namely Dallas, Minnesota, Detroit (only one of the previous two would potentially finish the season with 5 wins, they face each other next week), San Francisco, Arizona (same scenario with these two), Cleveland, and Houston. Of these teams, only Arizona do I see in dire need of a new quarterback. However, Minnesota and San Fran might get giddy with the prospect of Luck and take him with their selections (the Vikings faced with the return of unproven starter Tavaris Jackson, and the newly coachless 49ers switching between Smiths). Houston might be looking for a big change after a disappointing season, but they have a Pro-Bowl caliber QB in Matt Schaub that they would be foolish to get rid of. The Cowboys are safe for another five to seven years with Tony Romo as long as he doesn't get injured again. The Lions and Browns have their quarterbacks of the future in Matt Stafford and Colt McCoy, respectively.
Let's take another trip back in time, this time to the 2005 draft. The two highly-touted prospects were Cal's Aaron Rodgers and Utah's Alex Smith. Smith ended up drafted first overall by the 49ers, and no other team snapped at a QB until the Packers with the 24th pick took Rodgers. A-Rod, as I fondly refer to him, is a Pro Bowl quarterback who took over in 2008 after Brett Favre's second(?) retirement, while Alex Smith, as I not so fondly refer to him, has fought for the starting job in San Fran ever since being drafted, and should be let go by the team if their new coaching is right in the head.
Back to the present, if Arizona doesn't take a stab at Luck in the first ten picks of the draft, and no one trades up to get him, the next logical team I see that would like to sign him to a deal is Seattle, a west-coast team in need of a quarterback as it is likely Matt Hasselbeck's last year at the helm there. The only question is if the Seahawks will have the 12th pick, or the 21st, as they'll either finish 6-10 without a playoff berth, or 7-9 and losing in the wild card round.
Apart from 'Zona and Seattle, there's not a team with a real quarterback need in this year's draft. Sure, there's a half dozen or so that would probably take a chance at drafting Andrew Luck. I see Minnesota, San Francisco, Miami, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Oakland as teams with QB struggles, but realistically, only SanFran of the six do I think would waste a first-rounder on a guy like Luck. If Al Davis wasn't dead (which he is, how else do you explain that Oakland was in some playoff talks as late as two weeks ago?), I would say the Raiders would go at a big name like Andrew Luck, but now are different times.
So, while it won't be exactly like 1998 (or really at all like it), I still think the Panthers should go with the choice from the SEC, and leave the West-Coast favorite to bust elsewhere.
