We've made it through another month (and change) of pro football, so my predictions for how things will shake out by the end of the 2021 season are due for an update. Once again, I fully expect to be mistaken in many different areas of this prognostication. Bookmark this to revisit in three months and let's find out!
CLAYTON'S 2021 NFL MIDSEASON PREDICTIONS
AFC Standings
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| On pace for close to 4,700 passing yards and currently the league's sixth leading rusher, Lamar Jackson could be on his way to his second NFL MVP award (Vincent Carchietta // USA Today) |
East
New England 12-5
Buffalo 9-8
Miami 5-12
NY Jets 4-13
In my quarter-season picks, I called Buffalo "the class" of this division. The Bills' rough October has me rethinking that analysis. Paired with Bill Belichick finding a strategy to fit his current squad, it won't be long before the Patriots are back atop the AFC East.
West
LA Chargers 11-6
Las Vegas 11-6
Denver 10-7
Kansas City 9-8
Wow, what fun this division has been so far. The fun will continue all the way into January, when the Chargers will hold on for the home playoff game on a division record tiebreaker despite losing a Week 18 rematch against the Raiders.
North
Baltimore 15-2
Cincinnati 9-8
Pittsburgh 9-8
Cleveland 7-10
I can see the Ravens running the table the rest of the way, so the real interest in the North will be with who finishes best of the rest with a potential wild card spot on the line. I have the Browns faltering late and the Bengals winning a tiebreak over Pittsburgh thanks to a head-to-head sweep.
South
Tennessee 13-4
Indianapolis 8-9
Jacksonville 6-11
Houston 1-16
I already know I'm putting too much faith into the Titans, but I do think that they can go 4-4 down the stretch without Derrick Henry. That should be enough to top the division; the Colts are improving, but show signs of a team who still has a learning curve before they can beat the top teams in the AFC.
PLAYOFF STANDINGS
Baltimore
Tennessee
New England
LA Chargers
WC- Las Vegas
WC- Denver
WC- Buffalo
The big difference between these picks and my quarter-season prediction is the complete absence of Kansas City, who I had rebounding to win it all five weeks ago. Now I have the Chiefs losing out in a four-way tiebreak for the last wild card spot, which will ultimately belong to the Bills.
NFC Standings
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| Chandler Jones is a key part of a Cardinals defense that's dominating the NFC. (Wesley Hitt // Getty) |
East
Dallas 11-6
Philadelphia 7-10
NY Giants 5-12
Washington 3-14
The Cowboys have had the benefit of an easy schedule so far, which has put them far enough ahead of their otherwise-miserable division they should have no trouble getting its automatic playoff spot. I no longer see Dallas as a potential NFC Champ, with losses to Tampa and Denver now on the resume.
West
Arizona 16-1
LA Rams 13-4
Seattle 9-8
San Francisco 6-11
Can anyone stop the Cardinals? I guess the Packers could, but I'm not sure if anyone else will be able to. The Rams are an incredibly good team, but will end up a 13-win wild card team. The Seahawks will make the playoffs too; hovering around .500 throughout December will be just good enough.
North
Green Bay 11-6
Minnesota 7-10
Chicago 5-12
Detroit 1-16
I really want to see this Aaron Rodgers drama turn out not well, particularly for him. Reap what you sow, in this case a tough November. As long as the Vikings keep losing close games and the Bears remain inconsistent, the Pack will still end up in the tournament.
South
Tampa Bay 15-2
New Orleans 11-6
Carolina 7-10
Atlanta 6-11
Like Baltimore and Arizona, I have the Bucs running the table in November and December. As for the second team in the division, it's safe to say Carolina is not going to be in any shape for awhile, particularly with Sam Darnold's recent injury. The Saints will get into the wild card instead.
PLAYOFF STANDINGS
Arizona
Tampa Bay
Green Bay
Dallas
LA Rams
New Orleans
Seattle
Like in the quarter-season, I expect the NFC playoff picture to be a lot less volatile than over in the AFC. The seven teams on this bracket will all be decided with two weeks left to play, with Green Bay snatching the three seed from Dallas in Week 18 after the Cowboys rest against Philly.
Now, once again: Who's gonna win?
Wild Card Round: Buffalo over Tennessee, New England over Denver, LA Chargers over Raiders, Tampa Bay over Seattle, New Orleans over Green Bay, LA Rams over Dallas
Several regular season rematches highlight the wild card round. Most notably the Bolts and Raiders will play a rubber match at SoFi just one week after wrapping up the season together there. The Bills will get revenge for their regular season loss against the Titans, while the Saints D will once again prove too much for Captain Covid to overcome. Pats and Brady will win at home, while the Rams get a road win as the favored team.
Divisional Round: Baltimore over Buffalo, LA Chargers over New England, Arizona over New Orleans, Tampa Bay over LA Rams
Coming off the emotional high of what will likely be a close game in Nashville, the Bills will have no answer for Lamar and his flock. The Chargers will sneak one out in another Foxborough classic. On the National side, the two best teams in the league will have no problem in setting up a conference championship game for the ages.
AFC Championship: Baltimore over LA Chargers
When these two teams met three weeks ago, the Ravens walloped LA 34-6. Fast forward three months, same location, and I think the Chargers will be improved and definitely deserve their AFC Championship appearance. Nevertheless, I'm putting John Harbaugh's experience ahead of Brandon Staley's. This won't be the last we hear from the Chargers in the '20s, but it will be their last gasp of 2021.
NFC Championship: Arizona over Tampa Bay
I really, really struggled on my pick for this one. Tom Brady is Tom Brady and the Bucs are defending champs, but somehow I think Arizona's defense will be able to match Tampa blow for blow. Either way, this game will be entertaining to watch. Ultimately, the Cards will prevail to make their second ever Super Bowl appearance.
SUPER BOWL LVI
Well, we've certainly come to a different conclusion than the one we were at just five short weeks ago. The historical context of a Cardinals-Ravens Super Bowl matchup certainly isn't as deep as one between the Chiefs and Cowboys. What even do these guys have in common?
-They're both birds!
-Both have roots much deeper in other cities, and
-Both made their most recent move in the '90s.
-Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson are both inhumanly talented quarterbacks.
-The Ravens have always been a defense-oriented team, while Arizona boasts one of 2021's best Ds.
I don't really know what juicy storylines will come from this matchup, but it definitely will be a pairing of two of the best teams the NFL has to offer this season. Worth noting, if these are the two Super Bowl teams, it will be Baltimore's third appearance (with wins in XXXV and XLVII) and the Cardinals' second (they lost XLIII).
When I started this project two days ago, I was still under the same belief I had at quarter-season that Arizona was a phenomenal regular-season team, but the lack of playoff experience for Kyler and head coach Kliff Kingsbury would ultimately sink them in the playoffs. On the other side of the coin, John Harbaugh is already a Super Bowl champion coach with my current pick for MVP at quarterback.
It wasn't until about two paragraphs ago that I finally started to give Arizona a chance in my mind. If they can beat Tom Brady, not to mention their old coach who definitely will have some extra motivation, why can't they be a Super Bowl winner?
Then I realized they've already played a game in SoFi Stadium this season, a 37-20 victory over the Rams. That familiarity could give them an advantage! And if Lamar wins the MVP award I'm giving him, it's worth remembering no NFL MVP has won a Super Bowl this century.
So, let's do it.
SUPER BOWL LVI CHAMPIONS: Arizona
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| Congrats (or maybe I'm sorry?), Cardinals! (Kyle Terada // USA Today) |
Once again, I can't wait to see how wrong I am. Enjoy the second half of the season, NFL fans!
