30 August 2016

NFL PICKS! Preseason Week Four

Well, I goofed last week. This is the make-the-roster week, where the fourth-stringers get to show their stuff. Instead of repeating the theme of highlighting one player per team, I will present this weeks' picks similar to how I will predict regular season games. In addition, the week four picks will include one expectation for each team.

(Home team denoted in bold.)

Wednesday, August 31

Tampa Bay (2-1) 21, Washington (2-1) 19
You should see a middle-of-the-pack performance from the Bucs; Jameis Winston and crew may even challenge for a wild-card spot. Tampa's key will be if Dirk Koetter can improve the team in his first year as an NFL head coach. The Redskins will be in the wide-open hunt to defend their NFC East title as long as Kirk Cousins continues to play like he has something to prove.

You like THAT pick, Number Eight? (Nick Wass/Associated Press)
Thursday, September 1

New England (3-0) 24, Giants (1-2) 16
Brady or no Brady, the Pats should cruise into the playoffs with their eighth-straight AFC East crown (14th in the Belichick Era). The Giants, finally rid of Tom Coughlin, could surprise and fight in the NFC East, but another six-win season may be a bit more reasonable of an expectation for Big Blue.

Jimmy Garoppolo, if he can perform well in the first quarter of the season, may get a multi-millions deal elsewhere in 2017. (Derick E. Hingle/USA TODAY Sports)

Atlanta (2-1) 20, Jacksonville (1-2) 17
A mostly-quiet offseason may do the Falcons well. Under second-year head coach Dan Quinn, all Atlanta needs is to match last season's two-game improvement to record double-digit wins and possibly reach the postseason for the first time since 2012. Meanwhile, the unfortunate Jaguars will likely finish with their sixth-straight losing season. That said, six wins would be enough for their best record since 2010.

Receiver will be the brightest spot in a decent (by recent standards) Jacksonville season, with Allen Robinson primed for a second-straight Pro Bowl season. (Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports)
Philadelphia (3-0) 21, Jets (1-2) 14
The Eagles can't put the Chip Kelly experiment in distant memory quickly enough; with a healthy core and player-friendly head coach in Doug Pederson Philadelphia should be right in the thick of things in the NFC East. The Jets should match last season's 10-6 mark, and will reach the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

The X-factor for New York: Will Ryan's FitzMagic continue now that he has received a big, fat extension paycheck? (Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports)
Tennessee (2-1) 21, Miami (2-1) 17
A quick start may be the key for the Titans; confidence could get a major boost if Tennessee can carry a 3-0 record into a Week Four contest at Houston. Inversely, the Titans' confidence could get ruined with a 1-2 or 0-3 start. Miami might see another last-place finish in the AFC East; this team's improvement may not be evident until next year.

Jason McCourty and the Titans' secondary could make the difference for last year's worst team. (Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports)
Carolina (1-2) 21, Pittsburgh (1-2) 17
Denver exposed the Panthers in a big way seven months ago. Carolina is unquestionably still one of the three best teams in the NFC, so it may be January before we see if Cam and Co. have responded adequately to their Super Bowl meltdown. It will be much of the same in Pittsburgh, where a playoff appearance would be good for Mike Tomlin's career-best third straight postseason (seventh total in the now 10-year tenure for the head coach).

A fourth-straight 3500-yard season would make Ben Roethlisberger one of the NFL's 10 all-time leading passers. (Joe Robbins/Getty)
Buffalo (1-2) 23, Detroit (1-2) 16
Rex Ryan's squads always find a way to surprise. This year Buffalo will either jump over the Jets and get a wild card spot, or finish a disappointing 5-11. Should the former occur, Ryan will be seen as a Western New York hero no matter what happens to the Bills in subsequent years. With Calvin Johnson retired, Matthew Stafford won't have anyone to throw to. In other words, expect another disappointing Lions season.

Golden Tate is an exceptional wide receiver, but he's no Megatron. (Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press)
Cincinnati (1-2) 23, Indianapolis (1-2) 20
The Bengals are the team to beat in the AFC North (although Pittsburgh will give them a run for their money), but the team to beat up on come playoff time. Andy Dalton and Marv Lewis will need to find a way to get over that hump this year or the Brown family may finally decide to move on. Should they find a way to get over the hump, however, how awesome would a Pittsburgh-Cincy AFC Championship be? For Indianapolis, Andrew Luck needs to prove he can come back from an awful year to ensure continued Colts success. If he can do this, the Colts will challenge Houston for the AFC South title.

Andrew Luck was once the Elway or Manning of this generation, and one bad season does not a career make. (Andy Lyons/Getty)
Cleveland (0-3) 17, Chicago (0-3) 16
The Cleveland Browns and Robert Griffin III are a match made in hell, so you can go ahead and write them off as one of the league's worst this year. Chicago could be a hit or miss. If it's a miss, don't expect the Bears to hold on to John Fox or for Fox to ever have an NFL head coaching gig again.

Say Browns fans, "At least Josh Gordon's back." (Joshua Gunter/The Cleveland Plain Dealer)
Green Bay (3-0) 17, Kansas City (1-2) 14
I've bought into all the hooplah surrounding the Packers, as usual. Aaron Rodgers will get his squad to their eighth-straight postseason (extending a franchise record for playoff appearances) and likely to the quarterback's third conference championship game (if you're keeping track of records, Favre got the Pack there four times). Andy Reid will have his team ready to play in a tough AFC West division, but the playoffs will be a difficult achievement for the Chiefs this year.

Speaking of receivers making a comeback, Rodgers will have three-time Packer receiving leader Jordy Nelson back in his arsenal. (Todd Rosenberg/NFL)
Baltimore (3-0) 24, New Orleans (0-3) 14
The Ravens are a dark horse in the AFC North and wild card races. John Harbaugh will need to prove his worth as a coach to get Baltimore turned around from a 5-11 2015; considering the talent elsewhere in the North, even making it back to .500 would be a successful campaign. Meanwhile, the Saints are at the end of a storied era. Maybe Bountygate is to blame, but the bottom line is New Orleans could feasibly finish at the bottom of the NFC South for the first time since 2008.

Sean Payton is fresh off a five-year contract extension, but needs to right the ship to keep the ownership's trust in New Orleans. (Wesley Hitt/Getty)
Minnesota (3-0) 19, Los Angeles (2-1) 16
The defending NFC North champions, Minnesota will have to answer Green Bay blow-for-blow to have any chance of repeating atop the division. More likely for the Vikings is a wild card spot. The Rams might be the most intriguing team in the NFL this year. The move to L.A. is obviously a predominant storyline, but I'm more intrigued to see if Jeff Fisher has anything left in his coaching tank. I project a third-place finish in the NFC West, but the Rams may surprise.

One of the more overlooked young quarterbacks in the league, Teddy Bridgewater led his team to the playoffs for the first time in his career last year. (Brad Rempel/USA TODAY Sports)
Houston (3-0) 24, Dallas (1-2) 21
The Texans, until the Colts or Titans can prove otherwise, are the toast of the AFC South. A third straight 9-7 record may be enough to win again, but Houston would like to get back to double digit wins for the first time since 2012. The Cowboys are once again up in the air with another Tony Romo injury, but Dak Prescott has shown signs that he can fill in admirably. Unlike in the preseason, however, Prescott will be playing against first-team defenses once September 11 comes around. Best case scenario, the Mississippi State product shines and has the illustrious Cowboys career meant for Romo; worst case, Tony comes back midseason inheriting a 1-7 team.

JJ Watt is already a Hall of Fame contender after only half a decade and shows no signs of slowing down. (Scott Halleran/Getty)
Denver (2-1) 26, Arizona (0-3) 13
In order for the Broncos to defend as champions, new starting quarterback Trevor Siemian won't have to be flashy. He will have to be virtually mistake-free and allow the defense to do the rest. Any individual success he has will be an added bonus for Denver. I don't actually predict this, but there is a vague chance the Broncos could fail to live up to expectations, finish third in the West, and miss the playoffs entirely. For the Cardinals, anything short of a Super Bowl berth will be considered a disappointment.

Patrick Peterson anchors one of the best secondaries in football. (Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press)
San Diego (1-2) 19, San Francisco (1-2) 17
It will be a tough year for the "San" teams. The Chargers just got their top draft pick on the practice field; they desperately need Joey Bosa to help out a defense that not even a career-high passing year from Philip Rivers could save in 2015. As for the Niners, their main headliner right now is a controversial backup quarterback whose contract they never should have extended three years ago. In fact, I would not be surprised if these two teams finish with two of the worst records in the league.

In case anyone forgot, Blaine Gabbert is the 49ers' starting quarterback. (Ezra Shaw/Getty)
Seattle (2-1) 19, Oakland (1-2) 17
The Seahawks will have a solid season as usual. They probably won't beat Arizona in the NFC West standings, but should easily earn back-to-back wild card berths for the second time in franchise history (1983-84). The NFC is so incredibly top-heavy another Super Bowl run may be a relative longshot for Seattle but if anyone can pull off a miracle postseason of sorts, it's the team that has represented the National conference in the Super Bowl two of the last three years. Oakland is my dark horse contender in the AFC West. Jack Del Rio has a great squad of up-and-comers that improved four games in 2015. Another four game improvement this season puts the Raiders at 11-5 - it would be Oakland's first winning season since 2002 - and in the thick of the AFC wild card race.

Khalil Mack is the face of a new generation of Raiders - a generation who could return the Silver and Black to prominence for the coming decade. (Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports)

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