Starting in the AFC...
EAST
1. Buffalo - 14-3
2. Miami - 11-6
3. New England - 8-9
4. NY Jets - 7-10
The Bills got smoked in week one, but after their last three games including a smackdown of Miami Sunday, it's safe to say the division still runs through Orchard Park. The Dolphins' high flying offense will keep them in the hunt; they'll make the tournament in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2001. Belichick will somehow find a way to coax eight wins out of a moribund Pats squad. The wins will start coming for Zach Wilson, but not enough to get Gang Green out of the division cellar.
EAST
1. Buffalo - 14-3
2. Miami - 11-6
3. New England - 8-9
4. NY Jets - 7-10
The Bills got smoked in week one, but after their last three games including a smackdown of Miami Sunday, it's safe to say the division still runs through Orchard Park. The Dolphins' high flying offense will keep them in the hunt; they'll make the tournament in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2001. Belichick will somehow find a way to coax eight wins out of a moribund Pats squad. The wins will start coming for Zach Wilson, but not enough to get Gang Green out of the division cellar.
WEST
1. Kansas City - 13-4
2. LA Chargers - 7-10
3. Las Vegas - 6-11
4. Denver - 3-14
2. LA Chargers - 7-10
3. Las Vegas - 6-11
4. Denver - 3-14
The weakest division in football should be wrapped up between Thanksgiving and Hannukah this year, despite the Chiefs showing potential flaws in both of their primetime tests to date. The defending champs will have glaring question marks heading into the playoffs, with regular season losses to Buffalo and Cincinnati tarnishing their record. The Chargers and Raiders will be largely insignificant throughout 2023, and Denver will recover from their Week 4 Tank Bowl loss to ultimately recapture the worst record in the league. Broncos country, let's ride.
NORTH
1. Baltimore - 11-6
2. Cincinnati - 10-7
3. Cleveland - 9-8
4. Pittsburgh - 8-9
I like Baltimore coming out of the AFC North. They've been clicking throughout September and have relatively favorable odds going forward. Despite looking absolutely atrocious in the first month, I'm going to call a massive second-half turnaround for Cincinnati. The Bengals will bottom out at 3-7 before winning seven straight to safely secure a wild card spot. Cleveland will be competitive in every single contest with its league-best defense, ultimately securing the final AFC playoff spot by virtue of a Week 3 win over Tennessee.
2. Cincinnati - 10-7
3. Cleveland - 9-8
4. Pittsburgh - 8-9
I like Baltimore coming out of the AFC North. They've been clicking throughout September and have relatively favorable odds going forward. Despite looking absolutely atrocious in the first month, I'm going to call a massive second-half turnaround for Cincinnati. The Bengals will bottom out at 3-7 before winning seven straight to safely secure a wild card spot. Cleveland will be competitive in every single contest with its league-best defense, ultimately securing the final AFC playoff spot by virtue of a Week 3 win over Tennessee.
SOUTH
1. Jacksonville - 10-7
2. Tennessee - 9-8
2. Tennessee - 9-8
3. Houston - 7-10
4. Indianapolis - 6-11
Improvement is the theme throughout the AFC South. The Jaguars will still come out on top, but with one more win in 2023 than in 2022. Tennessee will be the last team eliminated from the AFC playoff picture as the only multi-game win or loss streak the Titans have all season will be a two-game win streak interrupted by their Week 7 bye. Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud will give Texans fans hope for the future, and Colts management will make Indianapolis fans concerned for Anthony Richardson's future. Regardless, both lower-tier South teams get more wins than they had last season.
The AFC's first round bye will go to Buffalo, with Kansas City, Baltimore, and Jacksonville respectively hosting divisional round games. Miami, Cincinnati, and Cleveland will serve as fifth-through-seventh seeds in the 2023-24 postseason.
The AFC's first round bye will go to Buffalo, with Kansas City, Baltimore, and Jacksonville respectively hosting divisional round games. Miami, Cincinnati, and Cleveland will serve as fifth-through-seventh seeds in the 2023-24 postseason.
Now, for the NFC.
EAST
EAST
1. Philadelphia - 13-4
2. Dallas - 11-6
3. Washington - 9-8
4. NY Giants - 4-13
2. Dallas - 11-6
3. Washington - 9-8
4. NY Giants - 4-13
This division is Philly's to lose, and they will not. The Eagles will be the last undefeated team in the NFL, making it to 6-0 before the ghosts of '72 help Miami beat them in a Sunday night shootout. A second primetime loss, a flexed-up week 13 contest against San Francisco, will ultimately cost Philadelphia the top seed in the conference. Dallas's defense will get the Cowboys to their third straight postseason, but the Cowboys' offense will help ensure it is just as a wild card participant. Washington will miss out on the playoffs on a tiebreaker, and the Giants will take a massive step backwards to a top-five draft pick.
WEST
1. San Francisco - 13-4
2. Seattle - 10-7
3. LA Rams - 7-10
4. Arizona - 4-13
The 49ers are the best team in the NFC, possibly the NFL, and will remain so throughout the regular season. They'll get the number one seed on an aforementioned tiebreak, but it will a well-earned first-round bye for the most complete team in pro football. I heard a radio host last night say Seattle could be 9-1 heading into their Thanksgiving showdown with the Niners, but I think the Hawks will drop two games by then and finish as the NFC's second wild card team with a tough slate of games down the stretch. The Rams are another middle of the road team, and the Cardinals' tank will fail thanks to three more wins against teams that, like Dallas in Week 3, vastly outmatch them on paper.
2. Seattle - 10-7
3. LA Rams - 7-10
4. Arizona - 4-13
The 49ers are the best team in the NFC, possibly the NFL, and will remain so throughout the regular season. They'll get the number one seed on an aforementioned tiebreak, but it will a well-earned first-round bye for the most complete team in pro football. I heard a radio host last night say Seattle could be 9-1 heading into their Thanksgiving showdown with the Niners, but I think the Hawks will drop two games by then and finish as the NFC's second wild card team with a tough slate of games down the stretch. The Rams are another middle of the road team, and the Cardinals' tank will fail thanks to three more wins against teams that, like Dallas in Week 3, vastly outmatch them on paper.
NORTH
1. Detroit - 11-6
2. Minnesota - 9-8
3. Green Bay - 9-8
4. Chicago - 4-13
2. Minnesota - 9-8
3. Green Bay - 9-8
4. Chicago - 4-13
If the Eagles and 49ers make up the top tier of the NFC, the Lions are surely just one ledge below. Detroit won't necessarily cruise to the Kingship of the North, but it'll lead the race the whole way. Someway, somehow, Minnesota will do the unthinkable and become the first team in a 17-game season to turn an 0-3 start into a playoff berth, beating out the Packers with a head-to-head sweep, and the Commanders on a conference record tiebreaker. After falling to 1-12, Chicago will inexplicably win three of its final four games to fall out of the top draft pick in 2024.
SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay - 9-8
2. Atlanta - 8-9
3. New Orleans - 8-9
4. Carolina - 4-13
The winner of the South will once again be Tampa, this time with a winning record (if only barely). As per usual, the teams in this division will eat each other up so multiple teams finish right around .500 and within a game or two of each other. This time the stepsisters missing out on the ball are the Saints and Falcons, while the Panthers remain among the league's worst teams.
2. Atlanta - 8-9
3. New Orleans - 8-9
4. Carolina - 4-13
The winner of the South will once again be Tampa, this time with a winning record (if only barely). As per usual, the teams in this division will eat each other up so multiple teams finish right around .500 and within a game or two of each other. This time the stepsisters missing out on the ball are the Saints and Falcons, while the Panthers remain among the league's worst teams.
As previously mentioned, San Francisco will emerge as the number one seed in the NFC, followed by Philadelphia, Detroit, and Tampa Bay as division winners and Dallas, Seattle, and feel-good Minnesota in the wild card positions.
Now on to my predictions for the postseason!
In the wild card round, the defending champs will continue to look mortal against the impressive Browns defense. The Chiefs will nonetheless with the low-scoring, likely one-score game. Over in Baltimore, Cincinnati's hot streak will continue in the very place it began. Lamar Jackson's playoff ineptitude continue as Joe Cool makes the Ravens look more like common cowbirds. A thriller will take place in the third AFC wild card game, as Doug Pederson's Duval Defense is able to slow down Miami just enough to get a relatively high-scoring win.
Now on to my predictions for the postseason!
In the wild card round, the defending champs will continue to look mortal against the impressive Browns defense. The Chiefs will nonetheless with the low-scoring, likely one-score game. Over in Baltimore, Cincinnati's hot streak will continue in the very place it began. Lamar Jackson's playoff ineptitude continue as Joe Cool makes the Ravens look more like common cowbirds. A thriller will take place in the third AFC wild card game, as Doug Pederson's Duval Defense is able to slow down Miami just enough to get a relatively high-scoring win.
On the NFC side of things, the Vikings' magic runs out quick when they come up against the defending conference champions. It will be over early, so early that Nick Sirianni will give his starters a rest before the game wraps up. In a rematch of a week 2 classic, Seattle ends up on top a second time. The Lions will be more competitive than their NFC North counterparts but their lack of playoff experience will ultimately show. Lastly, Dallas will have yet another defense-outscores-everyone-else sort of game with multiple touchdown returns against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.
Side note I only realized halfway into the wild card segment, I predicted all three Florida teams making the playoffs. Hmm.
In the divisional round, 2023 really starts looking just like 2022. The Bengals will go into Buffalo and upset the Bills. The Chiefs will look good beating Jacksonville. After a dreadful first half, the 49ers will shake off all the rust from resting in Week 18 when there was nothing left to clinch as well as during the wild card round. The resulting comeback will send Seattle home and San Francisco on to a NFC Championship rematch with the Eagles. After a regular season split with the Cowboys, the home team winning both games, Philadelphia will once again own Dallas at the Linc. Unlike in the regular season, the divisional round matchup won't be close.
For those following, this of course sets up the first time in NFL history both conference championship games are a rematch of the previous year's, as well as only the third time in league history the same two teams have played in three straight conference title games (the previous being Pittsburgh and Oakland in the '70s and San Francisco and Dallas in the '90s). In addition, Kansas City will extend their record streak of AFC title games hosted as Cincinnati will travel to Arrowhead Stadium for the third straight contest for the Lamar Hunt Trophy.
This season's NFC Championship will be much closer than 2022-23's; however, it will be the Eagles earning their second straight trip to the Super Bowl after avenging their regular season loss to the
49ers. In the Midwest, Joe Burrow and the Bengals will improve to 5-1 all-time against Mahomes and the Chiefs, winning their 10th straight game in an upset to reach their second Super Bowl in three years.
In Vegas, the past two Super Bowl losers will meet up for the first time in history. The Bengals will show the grit and determination that helped them come back from a 3-7 record to win the Lamar Hunt Trophy, but ultimately it will be the Philadelphia Eagles hoisting the Vince Lombardi as the confetti falls in Allegiant Stadium. The Eagles' young core of Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and D'Andre Swift will lead the charge; Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox's Hall of Fame legacies will become secured as they join fellow Eagles lifers Brandon Graham and Lane Johnson as two-time champs.
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| Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown will ascend the mountaintop in February, taking Fletcher Cox on his second trip. (Tim Nwachukwu // Getty) |
I might do this again at midseason, I might not.
I've never been right once. Sorry Eagles fans.
I've never been right once. Sorry Eagles fans.
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