NFL PICKS! Week Six

Last week: 9-5
Year to date: 45-32 (.584)

(Home team denoted in bold. Bye week teams: Tampa Bay and Minnesota)

Dak Prescott (4) and Ezekiel Elliott, both rookies, have led the Cowboys to a 4-1 start. Can they keep up the pace at 3-1 Green Bay? (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)

Thursday, October 13

Denver (4-1) 29, San Diego (1-4) 24
Stat of the week: Despite outscoring their opponents by an average of 30-28 this season, the Chargers are 1-4. They'll lose another close one to a division opponent this week.

Sunday, October 16

Philadelphia (3-1) 29, Washington (3-2) 17
This one will have major ramifications in the NFC East race. After starting 0-2, the Redskins have quietly won three straight. If they can pull one off at home against the Eagles, it will be time to start taking Jay Gruden's squad seriously.

Pittsburgh (4-1) 33, Miami (1-4) 19
The Eagles game was an extreme aberration, because the Steelers have now won three of their five games by two scores or more. Expect them to continue this trend against the Dolphins.

Jacksonville (1-3) 26, Chicago (1-4) 23
The Bears need to win the snoozefest of the week much more than the Jaguars do; just five games into the regular season, Chicago is already four games behind in the NFC North. Jacksonville is just two games out of first place in the AFC South.

Tennessee (2-3) 31, Cleveland (0-5) 19
No matter how bad Cleveland is, the Browns have consistently beaten the Titans over the last few years. Somehow the Titans will overcome their home-field disadvantage to conquer their toughest opponent of the 2010's.

New England (4-1) 31, Cincinnati (2-3) 16
What is happening in Cincinnati? The Bengals have the league's fourth-best passing offense, with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green each second in the league in passing and receiving yards, respectively. A 2-3 record and third-place position in their division makes the stats essentially meaningless.

Buffalo (3-2) 33, San Francisco (1-4) 20
The Bills will begin to prove that Colin Kaepernick started the season as a backup because he can't play quarterback, not because of any political statements.

Baltimore (3-2) 20, Giants (2-3) 17
This one might look like a defensive showdown, but that's only because these teams have two of the ten worst scoring offenses in pro football.

Los Angeles (3-2) 24, Detroit (2-3) 23
The Rams and Lions are both enigmas. No one really understands how the Rams got off to a 3-1 start, including wins against NFC playoff mainstays Arizona and Seattle. The Lions, meanwhile, beat previously-unbeaten Philadelphia after only having won one previous game. I'm a believer in Los Angeles, who should win this one.

Carolina (1-4) 32, New Orleans (1-3) 28
The only reasons this game is not the snoozefest of the week is because it's an intra-divisional contest, and because the Jaguars and Bears are playing each other this week too.

Oakland (4-1) 26, Kansas City (2-2) 24
Andy Reid is traditionally strong coming off a bye week, but the Raiders keep finding ways to win. It will be close and it will be fun, but Oakland will stay deadlocked with the Broncos in the AFC West race.

Green Bay (3-1) 26, Dallas (4-1) 23
This game has "marquee matchup" written all over it. Two of the most storied franchises in NFL history, each with one loss apiece, couldn't be more different in 2016. The 3-1 Packers have looked underwhelming with an all-pro, Super Bowl-winning core that has been in place for years. The Cowboys look like an impressive, re-energized group whose strongest asset is its youth. Dallas's exceptional rookies will be facing their first real test of the season, so I'll take the experience of Rodgers, Lacy and co. to win a close one.

Seattle (3-1) 30, Atlanta (4-1) 24
Something tells me the Falcons are going to make me regret picking against them for the fifth straight week, but I still have issues picking against the Seahawks when they have the 12th Man at their service. Incidentally, I have yet to correctly predict a Falcons game in 2016.

Indianapolis (2-3) 27, Houston (3-2) 23
If every one of my week six predictions regarding the AFC South comes true, there will be a three-way tie for the division lead, with Jacksonville only one game behind the Colts, Texans and Titans.

Monday, October 17

Arizona (2-3) 34, Jets (1-4) 19
My analysis of this game can be summed up in the following tweet:

Not really sure why #MNF is still a television program. They've got good matchups, at best, in 40% of the games. No longer must-see TV.

— Clayton Hurdle (@churdle76) October 11, 2016