Last year, I brought you a list of the teams most likely to become Cinderella favorites in the NCAA tournament. I correctly predicted the successes of 14-seed Mercer, 12-seed Harvard and 11-seed Tennessee (although 11-seed Dayton made it all the way to the Elite Eight). This year there is a new crop of hopeful low seeds with high expectations for the 2015 Tournament.
Following is this year's list of the teams you should get behind before they become the next unexpected stepdaughter to turn into the princess of the Dance.
15-seed: North Dakota State
(23-9, Summit League champions; First round: Gonzaga)
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| Senior guard Lawrence Alexander |
Runner up: New Mexico State
14-seed: Albany
(24-8; America East champions; First round: Oklahoma)
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| Junior guard Evan Singletary |
Oklahoma ended its Big 12 title hopes with a semifinal loss to Iowa State, which could dampen the Sooners' spirits. OU finished the regular season with a 22-10 mark in perhaps the toughest conference in college basketball. With no challenge comparable to a grueling Big 12 schedule in the first weekend, the Sooners could get caught napping,
In all honesty, I'm not enthusiastic about any of this year's 14 seeds' chances of advancing. If the Danes can take advantage of an Oklahoma team that has a chance of not putting forth much effort, Albany could end up advancing to the third round.
Runner up: Georgia State
13-seed: Eastern Washington
(26-8; Big Sky champion; First round: Georgetown)
(26-8; Big Sky champion; First round: Georgetown)
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| Head coach Jim Hayford |
The Eagles stormed through the Big Sky tourney, defeating conference powerhouse Montana on the Grizzlies' home court. With only four losses since New Year's, all nonconsecutive, Eastern Washington has plenty of mojo headed into the Big Dance.
The Georgetown Hoyas were upset in the Big East semifinal by Xavier, finishing with a 21-10 record. The Hoyas have not won more than one game in the Big Dance since their 2007 Final Four run, suggesting head coach John Thompson's squad has gotten used to the one-and-done routine.
Should they advance, the Eagles would play either an inconsistent Utah team or 12-seeded Stephen F. Austin. Eastern Washington, being the closest team of the four in its playing site of Portland, Ore., could use its familiarity with the location to construct a Sweet Sixteen run.
Runner up: Valparaiso (N.B.: Harvard was the easy choice, given the Crimson's recent tournament success, but EWU and Valpo both drew easier opponents than Harvard's - North Carolina - so I decided in a different direction.)
12-seed: Stephen F. Austin
(29-4; Southland champion; First round: Utah)
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| Junior guard Jared Johnson |
The Lumberjacks surprised everyone by upsetting VCU in the second round of 2014's tournament; this year SFA won its third straight Southland title and is back for another chance at an upset. Though their 2015 regular season was slightly worse than 2014, the 'Jacks are still an upset force to be reckoned with.
The Utes, when they are playing well, are a difficult team to beat. However, Utah can be inconsistent at times. The Utes will have to put their best foot forward against Stephen F. Austin, or they will be heading back to Salt Lake City much earlier than expected.
If SFA can win in the Round of 64, Eastern Washington or Georgetown will await. With the Lumberjacks' recent tournament experience, it will be no surprise if they can make it to the second weekend.
Runner up: Wofford
11-seed: Dayton
(25-8; Atlantic 10 at-large; Play-in game: Boise State; First round: Providence)
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| Senior guard Jordan Sibert |
The Flyers are no stranger to the Dance. Last year, Dayton reached the Elite Eight as an 11-seed. They have the talent and experience to do the same in 2015, although they have to play in the First Four in addition to the rest of the tournament. There shouldn't be much concern in Dayton getting past the First Four; the games are taking place on the Flyers' home court, after all.
Dayton's second round opponent will be Providence, the Big East's fourth-place team. The Friars have not won an NCAA tournament game since 1997. Again, location should play a large part in Dayton's opening weekend; the second and third round games will take place in Columbus, just an hour's drive away from the Flyers' home.
Dayton might also be playing in the weakest bracket of this year's tournament. The main threat for the Flyers could be Virginia. Should the Cavs be upset in the first weekend, don't be surprised if Dayton can make a Final Four run.
Runner up: Ole Miss
Runner up: Ole Miss
10-seed: Davidson
(24-7; Atlantic 10 at-large; First round: Iowa)
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| Junior guard Brian Sullivan |
Iowa disappointed in the Big Ten tournament. Finishing fifth-best in the conference, the Hawkeyes were upset by 13-seed Penn State in the second round. Iowa had four losing streaks of at least two games this season; the Penn State loss was the team's first since February 15. A team with a propensity for losing two or more consecutive games at a time is definitely a red flag for a potential upset.
Davidson would go on to play either Gonzaga - who as mentioned before has constantly under-performed as a top-five seed - or 15-seed North Dakota State. The Wildcats' chances of advancing to the Sweet Sixteen, therefore, are reasonable.
Runner up: Ohio State
9-seed: Louisiana State
(22-10; SEC at-large; First round: North Carolina State)
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| Sophomore forward Jarell Martin |
The Tigers will "geaux" up against N.C. State, the team with the worst regular season record in the top half of Tournament teams. The 20-13 Wolfpack finished seventh in the ACC, behind an underrated Miami team that didn't even make the Big Dance.
LSU will advance to play Villanova, the Big East champion. The Wildcats are perhaps the least-proven one seed, at least in the national spotlight. LSU should have a shot at the third-round upset, but it depends on how good the Tiger team that shows up Saturday will be.
Runner up: Purdue
Agree with my picks? Think another team will come out of nowhere to become America's sweetheart in the next three weeks? Leave a comment and let me know!
