06 November 2013

NFL midseason report

Every NFL team has now played through the halfway point of its schedule. Now that it's midseason, it's time to dole out my annual midseason predictions.

Final Standings

AFC East
New England 12-4
New York Jets 9-7
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 5-11
Explanation: Tom Brady just gets it done year after year. He will lead the Patriots to their 10th division title in the last 11 years. The first half of the season has proved successful for the Jets, who will fight for a wild card spot up until week 17. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Miami's offseason gambles did not quite pay off as well as the team hoped. Buffalo will compete when EJ Manuel returns, but it will be too little, too late as the Bills finish in the cellar.

AFC North
Cincinnati 11-5
Baltimore 8-8
Cleveland 7-9
Pittsburgh 5-11
Explanation: The Bengals already seem to have wrapped up the AFC North. The Ravens and Browns will stay competitive in the playoff hunt until the last week or so, but their early seasons will end up costing them. The Steelers' season took a massive dive; the team will need to restructure after a last-place finish.

AFC South
Indianapolis 12-4
Tennessee 9-7 (wild card)
Houston 5-11
Jacksonville 1-15
Explanation: The Colts proved Saturday night that nothing will keep them from rising back to the top of the AFC South. The Titans will earn their first of a string of wild card berths by beating out the Jets via tiebreak in the final week of the season. Houston plays a tough second half; they will be competitive for a while, but will simmer down to a 5-11 mark by season's end. Don't expect the Jags to match the 2008 Lions, but they'd be the team to do so if anyone goes 0-16 in 2013.

AFC West
Denver 13-3
Kansas City 11-5 (wild card)
San Diego 8-8
Oakland 4-12
The Chiefs finally will play the good teams on their schedule. Expect a losing second half of their season, but Kansas City will still win enough to reach the wild card round. Denver will lose in Kansas City and New England, but will hold on to win the division and give Peyton Manning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Chargers won't go home happy, but Mike McCoy has the building blocks on which to build a 2014-15 playoff team. The Dennis Allen era will be over in Oakland after the Raiders put together yet another 10-plus-loss season.

NFC East
Dallas 9-7
Washington 9-7
Philadelphia 6-10
New York Giants 4-12
Explanation: Every team in the NFC East will play a tough second-half schedule. It is really only because the Cowboys lead now that Dallas will represent this once-great division in the playoffs. The Redskins are beginning to find their stride, but RGIII's squad will eventually find themselves on the outside looking in. The Eagles will begin their fall after facing a bye-rested San Francisco team next week.  The Giants' season was over before it really even began.

NFC North
Detroit 13-3
Chicago 9-7
Green Bay 9-7
Minnesota 2-14
Explanation: The Lions are by far the only healthy team that's competitive in the NFC North. Over the next three weeks, they will use an easy second half to pull ahead of the injury-plagued Bears and Packers and then will ride out the rest of the season on top. Chicago will sweep Green Bay to earn the second-place spot, and the Vikings will be looking for answers after pulling a reverse-Kansas City.

NFC South
Carolina 11-5
New Orleans 11-5 (wild card)
Atlanta 4-12
Tampa Bay 2-14
Explanation: Thanks to the Falcons upsetting New Orleans in the Georgia Dome in week 12, the Panthers will win a tiebreak over the Saints to win the NFC South in a shocker. I think Carolina is playing too well to lose more than two games in the second half. The Saints are struggling on the road; despite a perfect 8-0 in the SuperDome they will find themselves on the road in the wild card round. The win over New Orleans will be the Falcons' only bright spot of the season. Tampa will win two late games after firing Greg Schiano and enter search mode as soon as the season closes.

NFC West
Seattle 14-2
San Francisco 11-5
Arizona 9-7
St. Louis 5-11
Explanation: Tampa was a giant fluke for the Seahawks. They'll be fine. Bruce Arians will keep the Cards competitive, but a loss to Philadelphia will cost them a shot at the NFC West's third playoff spot. The 49ers will earn the only wild card berth from the West, and Arizona will be left watching. The Rams are just beginning to struggle; Jeff Fisher could possibly see himself out of work once again at the end of the year.

Playoff scenarios

AFC1- Denver
AFC2- New England
AFC3- Indianapolis
AFC4- Cincinnati
AFC5- Kansas City
AFC6- Tennessee

NFC1- Seattle
NFC2- Detroit
NFC3- Carolina
NFC4- Dallas
NFC5- New Orleans
NFC6- San Francisco

Wild Card Round:
AFC3 Indianapolis 42, AFC6 Tennessee 20
It won't be pretty for the Titans, who haven't made the playoffs under the current regime or with practically any of the current roster. Luck and the Colts are ready for a third game in the division rivalry this season, and will roll over Tennessee.

AFC4 Cincinnati 26, AFC5 Kansas City 13
The Chiefs will put up a fight early, but the Bengals have been to the playoffs before and know what it takes to win.

NFC5 New Orleans 37, NFC4 Dallas 10
The Saints will come angry after losing the division. Drew Brees will throw for 500 yards and four touchdowns as cameras everywhere will show Tony Romo flustered on the sideline throughout the game.

NFC3 Carolina 36, NFC6 San Francisco 30 (OT)
Third-year superstars Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick will go blow-for-blow in the most exciting wild card game of 2014. Cam will win it, fittingly, on a 13-yard bootleg rushing touchdown in the waning seconds of overtime. The Panthers' miracle season continues.

Divisional Round:
AFC3 Indianapolis 30, AFC2 New England 27
Try as he might, Tom Brady will not be able to overcome four different receivers' rookie mistakes. An Aaron Dobson bobbled pass will set Adam Vinatieri and the Colts up in field goal range as the clock ticks down. Unlike Peyton Manning, Luck will not feel the sting of losing to Brady in the playoffs.

AFC4 Cincinnati 41, AFC1 Denver 34
Peyton Manning's record-breaking season will come to a sudden end when he watches veteran safety Chris Crocker return an interception 63 yards into the end zone for the game's final score. Andy Dalton and the Bengals will move on.

NFC3 Carolina 24, NFC2 Detroit 18
The Panthers defense will step up to the challenge of Stafford, Megatron and the Lions. The Lions will suffer from ten weeks of weak competition and not be prepared to handle Carolina. Newton once again will advance.

NFC1 Seattle 53, NFC5 New Orleans 35
Remember the 12th Man coming to play when the 11-5 Saints paid a visit to the 7-9 Seahawks? It will be even more humiliating for New Orleans this time around as the Seahawks are decidedly a better team in 2013.

AFC Championship: 3-Indianapolis 21, Cincinnati 6
Ultimately, this game will come down to the better defense. Robert Mathis and the Colts D will step up and force Andy Dalton into several ill-fated decisions. Luck will do a better job of managing the game, and will reach the Super Bowl in his second year as a pro quarterback.

NFC Championship: 1-Seattle 33, 3-Carolina 24
Not even Cameron Newton can get past the 12th Man. Seattle rides the home wave straight to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XLVIII: Indianapolis 24, Seattle 16
The next generation of NFL football will officially be introduced February 2, 2014 when future Hall of Famers Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck meet for the first of three times in the Super Bowl. Just as in the regular season preview, Luck will draw first championship blood and become the first quarterback drafted in the historic class of 2012 to win a Super Bowl. Chuck Pagano, just a year ago fighting to defeat cancer, will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in the cold New York air.

Postseason awards

Offensive Player of the Year: Peyton Manning
When all is said and done, Manning will likely have every significant single-season passing record. He is by far the most deserving man for this award. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Justin Houston
Houston has been putting together one of the most outstanding seasons this year on one of this year's most outstanding defenses. Robert Mathis will finish a close second, but Houston will beat the Colt out. 

Comeback Player of the Year: Cam Newton
After fighting a sophomore slump, Newton will lead his team to the playoffs in 2013. That's a stellar comeback if ever there was one. 

Rookie of the Year-Offense: Geno Smith
There are a handful of players who are worthy for this award, most notably Keenan Allen, Eddie Lacy and Kenbrell Thompkins. But ultimately, Geno is most responsible for his team's success in 2013, which is why he will stand out among the rest. 

Rookie of the Year-Defense: Kiko Alonso
If it wasn't for Vontaze Burfict's oft-fined play, the Bengals 'backer would be the clear choice. Despite Buffalo's subpar record, Alonso has been very impressive during his inaugural season. 

Most Valuable Player: Tom Brady
Have you seen the group of guys he's been playing with? Without Brady, the Patriots are one of the bottom two teams in the AFC East. You can't get more valuable than that.

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid
Yes, the Chiefs will cool down in the second half. But a nine-win improvement is spectacular in the NFL. Chuck Pagano, Marvin Lewis, Bruce Arians and Ron Rivera should all get consideration, but Reid will be the best man for the award. 

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