What's up 22 readers! The season is two months old, so let's see if my quarter season predictions are holding up or if I've changed my ideas about who's going to be left standing at the end after another month of football. Small disclaimer, I began working on this before the Thursday night game, which I of course picked incorrectly. I'm leaving that pick incorrect for the integrity of this project and for the sake of laziness in not wanting to restart.
Starting in the AFC...
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| Playing with a determination like none other, Joe Burrow will emerge as the 2023 NFL MVP. (Michael Hickey // Getty) |
EAST
1. Miami - 12-5
2. Buffalo - 11-6
3. NY Jets - 7-10
4. New England - 6-11
I kept the Jets at 7-10, but other than that there is a lot of change from quarter-season. That includes swapping Buffalo for Miami atop the division. Both teams will drop three of their last nine, but it will ultimately be Miami coming out on top after winning the very last game of the regular season - a typical primetime struggle for Josh Allen. The Jets will have faint playoff hopes until around Christmas, and New England will find four more wins in an otherwise forgettable season.
1. Miami - 12-5
2. Buffalo - 11-6
3. NY Jets - 7-10
4. New England - 6-11
I kept the Jets at 7-10, but other than that there is a lot of change from quarter-season. That includes swapping Buffalo for Miami atop the division. Both teams will drop three of their last nine, but it will ultimately be Miami coming out on top after winning the very last game of the regular season - a typical primetime struggle for Josh Allen. The Jets will have faint playoff hopes until around Christmas, and New England will find four more wins in an otherwise forgettable season.
WEST
1. Kansas City - 12-5
2. Denver - 7-10
3. LA Chargers - 7-10
4. Las Vegas - 7-10
2. Denver - 7-10
3. LA Chargers - 7-10
4. Las Vegas - 7-10
Call it the Taylor Swift Effect, call it Travis Kelce is literally Kansas City's only offensive weapon. Regardless, the Chiefs will drop three more, including one to a team they should beat easily on paper, but still hold on to what is still a miserable division. I didn't even bother tiebreaking the three 7-10 teams; the main surprise here from the start of the season is Denver. After the back-to-back wins to close out October, I think they have it in them to win at least a couple more; they may even go my predicted 4-5 down the stretch.
NORTH
1. Cincinnati - 13-4
2. Baltimore - 12-5
3. Pittsburgh - 10-7
4. Cleveland - 8-9
In stark contrast to the West, the AFC North is probably top-to-bottom the best division in the NFL this year. Last month, I predicted the Bengals to come back from 3-7 to snag a wild card spot. The Cardiac Cats are already 4-3, and I truly believe they could run the table or just drop one game to not only claim the division from Baltimore in Week 18, but also earn a first-round bye in the playoffs. I'm giving the Ravens and Steelers both wild card berths in this prognostication, while the Browns will end the season on a three-game skid and get knocked out of the postseason in the final week.
2. Baltimore - 12-5
3. Pittsburgh - 10-7
4. Cleveland - 8-9
In stark contrast to the West, the AFC North is probably top-to-bottom the best division in the NFL this year. Last month, I predicted the Bengals to come back from 3-7 to snag a wild card spot. The Cardiac Cats are already 4-3, and I truly believe they could run the table or just drop one game to not only claim the division from Baltimore in Week 18, but also earn a first-round bye in the playoffs. I'm giving the Ravens and Steelers both wild card berths in this prognostication, while the Browns will end the season on a three-game skid and get knocked out of the postseason in the final week.
SOUTH
1. Jacksonville - 11-6
2. Tennessee - 7-10
2. Tennessee - 7-10
3. Indianapolis - 7-10
4. Houston - 6-11
At the start of October, I predicted 10 wins for the Jaguars. At 6-2 through the halfway point, 11 wins seems like a fair final tally. Will Levis has some catching up to do if he wants to be in the Rookie of the Year conversation that a month ago started and ended with C.J. Stroud, but it's possible. I'm not keen on either of them for the award, however; more on that later. Nothing super exciting will happen for the rest of the season for Tennessee, Houston, and Indianapolis; a win or two here, two or three losses there, keep focusing on developing young talent.
The AFC playoff picture hasn't changed much since quarter-season as far as who's in, the only switch out I did was Pittsburgh for Cleveland. The seeding has significantly changed. The first overall seed will be the Bengals; Kansas City, Miami, and Jacksonville will host wild card games. The wild card seeds from fifth through seventh will be Baltimore, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh.
The AFC playoff picture hasn't changed much since quarter-season as far as who's in, the only switch out I did was Pittsburgh for Cleveland. The seeding has significantly changed. The first overall seed will be the Bengals; Kansas City, Miami, and Jacksonville will host wild card games. The wild card seeds from fifth through seventh will be Baltimore, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh.
Now, for the NFC.
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| I'm picking Puka for this year's top rookie. (Kyle Terada // USA Today) |
EAST
1. Philadelphia - 14-3
2. Dallas - 13-4
3. Washington - 5-12
4. NY Giants - 4-13
2. Dallas - 13-4
3. Washington - 5-12
4. NY Giants - 4-13
I was right about Philadelphia being the last unbeaten team, although I gave them their first loss a week later than they actually got it. I don't think there is a question whatsoever that the Eagles are the best team in the NFL this year. I have Dallas finishing with a couple more wins now than I did a month ago; the offense concerns me but the opportunistic Cowboys defense is so much fun to watch. I gave the Commanders significantly fewer wins than I did in quarter-season, and the Giants exactly the same.
WEST
1. San Francisco - 12-5
2. Seattle - 11-6
3. LA Rams - 5-12
4. Arizona - 5-12
The 49ers are clearly no longer the best team in the NFL as I predicted a month ago, making the race for the West much, much more interesting. At this point it could go to either San Francisco or Seattle. This will give their two matchups, just 17 days apart, shades of the iconic NFC West rivalry of a decade ago. I still have the 49ers righting the ship and prevailing ultimately. Puka Nacua is my current pick for Rookie of the Year; whereas Stroud's production has dipped off Nacua has remained a consistent receiving threat for a Rams team in an otherwise forgettable season. Currently sitting at 1-7, the Cardinals will somehow pick up four wins to mess up the tank and avoid the top pick in the draft.
2. Seattle - 11-6
3. LA Rams - 5-12
4. Arizona - 5-12
The 49ers are clearly no longer the best team in the NFL as I predicted a month ago, making the race for the West much, much more interesting. At this point it could go to either San Francisco or Seattle. This will give their two matchups, just 17 days apart, shades of the iconic NFC West rivalry of a decade ago. I still have the 49ers righting the ship and prevailing ultimately. Puka Nacua is my current pick for Rookie of the Year; whereas Stroud's production has dipped off Nacua has remained a consistent receiving threat for a Rams team in an otherwise forgettable season. Currently sitting at 1-7, the Cardinals will somehow pick up four wins to mess up the tank and avoid the top pick in the draft.
NORTH
1. Detroit - 14-3
2. Chicago - 6-11
3. Minnesota - 5-12
4. Green Bay - 4-13
2. Chicago - 6-11
3. Minnesota - 5-12
4. Green Bay - 4-13
The Lions are the chief beneficiary of an already-weak NFC North whose bottom has recently fallen out thanks in part to the most-mourned injury of the season to dote and the Packers being just about the worst team of the past few weeks. Detroit could plausibly even win the whole division on Thanksgiving if the Vikings fail to win all month without Kirk Cousins. The Bears, currently with the worst record in the division, will go 4-5 down the stretch to win the coveted prize of distant second. In what's probably the biggest overreaction of 2023, the Vikings win just one more game all season. The Packers will just continue to be garbage.
SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay - 10-7
2. New Orleans - 10-7
3. Atlanta - 8-9
4. Carolina - 3-14
I started tracking the playoff picture in Week 12 of this prediction, and in alternating weeks the NFC South had New Orleans leading with Atlanta in a wild card spot or Tampa Bay leading with New Orleans the at-large. Ultimately the second scenario is what played out as the Falcons lose their last three games in classic Dirty Bird fashion. Carolina will ultimately secure the worst record in the NFL and allow Chicago the top pick in the 2024 draft thanks to the "brilliant" Bryce Young trade.
2. New Orleans - 10-7
3. Atlanta - 8-9
4. Carolina - 3-14
I started tracking the playoff picture in Week 12 of this prediction, and in alternating weeks the NFC South had New Orleans leading with Atlanta in a wild card spot or Tampa Bay leading with New Orleans the at-large. Ultimately the second scenario is what played out as the Falcons lose their last three games in classic Dirty Bird fashion. Carolina will ultimately secure the worst record in the NFL and allow Chicago the top pick in the 2024 draft thanks to the "brilliant" Bryce Young trade.
The playoff picture in the NFC is even more similar to quarter-season than the AFC. New Orleans will replace Minnesota and the division winner seeding will change slightly. Most significantly, Philadelphia gets the first round bye. Detroit, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay will be the second through fourth seeds hosting fifth through seventh seeds Dallas, Seattle, and New Orleans in the wild card round.
Now on to my predictions for the postseason!
In the wild card round, Pittsburgh will keep it close in the first half, but the Chiefs will ultimately overpower a young Steelers team still finding their identity. In a rematch of the Week 18 game that gave Miami a playoff home game, big-game Josh Allen will come through once again. He'll turn the ball over four times as the Greatest Show on Surf notches its first postseason victory. In another tough day for a quarterback that can't win in the clutch, the Jaguars will stifle Lamar Jackson to cap off an AFC wild card weekend dominated by the division champs.
Now on to my predictions for the postseason!
In the wild card round, Pittsburgh will keep it close in the first half, but the Chiefs will ultimately overpower a young Steelers team still finding their identity. In a rematch of the Week 18 game that gave Miami a playoff home game, big-game Josh Allen will come through once again. He'll turn the ball over four times as the Greatest Show on Surf notches its first postseason victory. In another tough day for a quarterback that can't win in the clutch, the Jaguars will stifle Lamar Jackson to cap off an AFC wild card weekend dominated by the division champs.
In the NFC, Derek Carr and the Saints will be no match for the roaring Dan Campbell Lions. 49ers-Seahawks will have a trilogy segment, just like it always seemed to during that all-time great rivalry of the early 2010s. The road team will come out on top, not allowing Brock Purdy's playoff magic to extend to his sophomore campaign. Down in West Florida (and one of the all-time great NFL uniform matchups; I just love that red and pewter of Tampa against the white and silver of Dallas), the Cowboys defense will absolutely bewilder Baker Mayfield for an easy road win.
After nearly running the table to earn a rest week, Cincinnati might end up being too rested when the Juggernaut Jaguars come to town. Trevor Lawrence and company will bewilder the Bengals and 2023 NFL MVP Burrow will be denied his annual postseason meetup with 2022 MVP Patrick Mahomes. Speaking (now) of Mahomes, the AFC's other Florida squad will meet its end in chilly Arrowhead stadium as Kansas City, also thanks to the Bengals' loss, will get to host its sixth straight AFC title game. Hosting their second straight NFC Championship will be the Eagles, who benefit from the bye week to dismantle the Seahawks. The Cowboys' defense will run out of miracles against Detroit, who will stymie the mediocre Dallas offense to win two playoff games in a season for the first time since 1957 and advance to just the second NFC Championship game in franchise history.
Second seed Kansas City will host its aforementioned sixth straight battle for the Lamar Hunt Trophy against fourth seed Jacksonville, in the Championship for the fourth time in franchise history. The top-seeded Eagles will also be in a familiar spot trying to win their second straight George Halas Trophy against a famously starved second-seeded Lions squad. If either of the underdogs come out on top, it will make for their first Super Bowl appearance.
Instead, it will be the favorites winning both championships. Detroit will scratch and claw with every last ounce of intensity, but the Eagles have just enough talent and experience to survive what will surely be an instant classic. The Chiefs will continue to show vulnerability, but just like in Philly's case, Kansas City's championship pedigree will show through in an AFC Championship Game that is inexplicably closer than it probably should be.
Super Bowl LVIII will become just the second time in NFL history that two teams will face each other in back-to-back Super Bowls. Unlike the last time, when Dallas beat Buffalo in both Super Bowls XXVII and XXVIII, last year's loser will come out on top. Now even more than at the start of October, I am all in on the Eagles winning it all in February. They'll have a hiccup or two in the regular season, but once the dust is settled, there is no other team I can see within striking distance of Philadelphia.
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| It's all about the Shove - in fact, Jason Kelce for Super Bowl MVP! (Kevork Djansezian // AP) |
Oh, and the Eras Tour is in Tokyo on Super Bowl Sunday so the Chiefs won't have their good luck charm.
