Among those 68, 36 will be seen as underdogs in the first round. Only a few of those lower seeds will upset their higher-ranked foes on Thursday and Friday as the Big Dance begins. Even fewer will win two straight and make it to the coveted regional semifinals, or Sweet Sixteen. We call these teams Cinderellas. And after the runs of 15-seeded Florida Gulf Coast, 13-seeded La Salle, 12-seeded Oregon and 9-seed Wichita State last year, the expectations are high for 2014's underdogs.
Following is a list of Cinderella teams you should get behind before they become the next unexpected stepdaughter to become the princess of the Dance.
15-seed: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
(21-13, Horizon League champions; First round: Villanova)
All this to say, Milwaukee's on a hot streak coming into the tournament. The Panthers' first-round opponent, Villanova, was the regular-season champ of the Big East before losing in the tournament quarterfinal to eight-seeded Seton Hall. In terms of momentum, Milwaukee has every edge possible.
In the regional quarterfinal, Milwaukee would face either Connecticut or Saint Joseph's. After finishing off Villanova, the Panthers would certainly have enough to beat either one.
Runner up: Eastern Kentucky
14-seed: Mercer
(26-8, Atlantic Sun champions; First round: Duke)
Senior Monty Brown
The Bears knocked last year's favorite Cinderella, Florida Gulf Coast, into the NIT by winning the Atlantic Sun title. Mercer opened the season with a three-point loss at tournament team Texas, and had a six-point defeat at Big 12 counterpart Oklahoma. The Bears have a double-overtime win against Seton Hall and another victory at Ole Miss on their resume as well.
The Duke Blue Devils made it all the way to the Elite Eight last year. Following recent convention, it's time for another early exit from the tournament. Yes, Duke made it all the way to the ACC tournament championship. Yes, the Devils were the second team to beat Syracuse all year. Yes, the first two rounds are in Raleigh, which is of course Duke's backyard (ask me about my 1992 tournament experience sometime). But ultimately, you never know whether this team will go all the way or meet its demise at the hands of another Lehigh.
When it comes down to it, Mercer is simply the strongest 14-seed in the tournament, regardless of their opponent. Coupled with Duke's inconsistency of recent years, this could be a surprise no one sees coming.
If Mercer wins against Duke, the only team that stands a legitimate chance against the Bears in the second round is Iowa (see below). Of all the low-seeds, Mercer has the best shot at winning a second game if it can get past its first round opponent.
Runner up: Louisiana-Lafayette
13-seed: New Mexico State
(26-9, WAC champions; First round: San Diego State)
Junior K.C. Ross-Miller and sophomore Sim Bhullar
Firstly, the Aggies have this dude playing center. Secondly, this is the third-straight year, and fourth out of five, that NMSU has made it to the dance. Most prominent on this team's resume is its 67-61 road win against in-state rival New Mexico. If any a team was ready for its big break, it's this one.
San Diego State seems to always underperform in the tournament. Despite high seeding, the Aztecs have yet to pass the Sweet Sixteen this decade. In the past two years, they were one of the victims of FGCU's Dunk City and on the losing side of an 11-6 upset against North Carolina State. If any a team was poised for another upset, it's this one.
In the second round, the Aggies would have to eliminate either Oklahoma or North Dakota State. While Oklahoma would be tough, an energized New Mexico State squad could make it happen.
Runner up: Tulsa
12-seed: Harvard
(26-4, Ivy League champion; First round: Cincinnati)
I wouldn't be surprised if every five-seed in the tournament got upset in the first round this year. Harvard is, if nothing else, the trendiest upset option of the four 12s. After their first-round upset of New Mexico last year, the Crimson tore through the Ivy League. Two of Harvard's three non-conference losses came at the hands of tournament teams Connecticut and Colorado; the Crimson were within 10 in each contest.
The regular-season champions of the American, Cincinnati squeaked by nine-seed UCF in the tournament quarterfinal and lost to Connecticut in the conference semifinal. The Bearcats have had a rough post-season so far, and I wouldn't be surprised if the trend continues in the Big Dance.
The Crimson would have a monumental task in the second round if they get past Cincy. Harvard's likely second-round matchup is against a Michigan State team that some are picking to go all the way.
Runner-up: North Carolina State
11-seed: Tennessee
(21-12, SEC at-large; Play-in game: Iowa; First round: Massachusetts)
The Vols had been on the bubble for a month, and they kept on finding ways to win as the season got closer and closer to an end. If Tennessee can get past Iowa in the "First Four" there could be a Sweet Sixteen berth imminent for the boys from Knoxville.
At this point, no one has any confidence in Massachusetts' high seeding in this tournament. ESPN's bracket predictor, which typically picks all top seeds to advance, even said Massachusetts has a better chance of losing than winning. The Minutemen could be in for a Big Orange shock in Raleigh.
After the first round, Duke or Mercer would await the Volunteers. I already mentioned I don't have confidence in Duke's chances this year after an Elite Eight run in 2013, and even if the Bears play the upset card, their getting past Tennessee is certainly not sure-fire. The Vols could be in the best position of anyone on this list to make a Sweet Sixteen run.
Runner up: Iowa
10-seed: Saint Joseph's
(24-9, Atlantic 10 champions; First round: Connecticut)
The Hawks were able to beat one of the best defenses in college basketball in the A-10 championship. They put up an 11-5 record in an extremely competitive Atlantic 10 conference. Take away two disappointing losses at the end of the season, and Saint Joe's is 10-1 since the start of February.
Connecticut hasn't been a strong tournament force in some time. Although they reached the American semifinals, the Huskies could only garner a seven seed. It is quite possible UConn will be a one-and-done team this year.
A second-round game would either be a rematch against Villanova (who blew the Hawks out in December) or another Cinderella contender in Milwaukee. Saint Joseph's has a shot of winning against either team.
Runner up: Stanford
9-seed: George Washington
(24-8, Atlantic 10 at-large)
The Colonials finished a tiebreaker ahead of Saint Joe's in the A-10 standings. GW also beat an impressive Creighton team back in December. The Colonials advanced to the conference semifinals, losing to VCU for the second time. George Washington is poised for a run if they can overcome tournament mainstay Memphis.
The Tigers got blown out in the American quarterfinals by UConn, a team that beat them all three times the teams met this season. It was Memphis's fourth loss in its last eight games. Memphis holds a 3-7 record against tournament teams this year. A team that's struggling down the stretch could be enough for the Colonials to overcome.
The Colonials will face Virginia in the second round if they can get past Memphis. I picked George Washington mainly because it's the only mid-major nine seed. Last year's ultimate Cinderella, Wichita State, made it to the Final Four as a nine-seed out of the mid-major MVC. If GW can get past the Cavaliers, history could repeat itself.
Runner up: Oklahoma State
Agree with my picks? Think another team will come out of nowhere to become America's sweetheart in the coming weeks? Leave a comment and let me know!
