2024 FBS Top 25 October Update

We're a month (and change) into the college football season and since I stayed up for the end of the night games, I guess I'll put out an update before I go to sleep (time management, woohoo).

I've got the list divided into four tiers this month. Tier one is unbeaten Power 4 teams with three Power 4 wins. Tier two, unbeaten P4 teams with two P4 wins and three Group of 5 wins, and one-loss P4 teams with three P4 wins and two G5 wins/P4 losses. 

Tier three features unbeaten P4 teams with two P4 wins and two G5 wins, and one-loss P4 teams with two P4 wins and three G5 wins/P4 losses or three P4 wins and one G5 win/P4 loss. Tier four is the rest of the one-loss P4 teams, one two-loss P4 team, and two unbeaten G5 teams. As always, within the tiers teams are ranked based on their performance against the spread.

Defensive end Tyler Batty and BYU had a signature 38-9 win over Kansas State in a ridiculously impressive September. (AP Photo / Tyler Tate)

TIER ONE
1. BYU (5-0; 5-0, +85 ATS)
2. Pittsburgh (5-0; 5-0, +48 ATS)
3. Indiana (6-0; 5-1, +74 ATS)
4. Iowa State (5-0; 4-1, +30 ATS)
5. Miami (FL) (6-0; 3-3, +43 ATS)
6. Penn State (5-0; 2-3, -26 ATS)
TIER TWO
7. Texas (5-0; 4-1, +34 ATS)
8. Nebraska (5-1; 4-1-1, +10 ATS)
9. SMU (5-1; 4-2, +23 ATS)
10. Clemson (4-1; 3-2, +17 ATS)
11. Texas A&M (5-1; 2-4, +2 ATS)
TIER THREE
12. Ole Miss (5-1; 4-2, +49 ATS)
13. Arizona State (4-1; 4-1, +40 ATS)
14. Notre Dame (4-1; 3-2, +33 ATS)
15. Ohio State (5-0; 3-2, +30 ATS)
16. Alabama (4-1; 3-2, +22 ATS)
17. Duke (5-1; 3-2-1, +12 ATS)
18. Texas Tech (5-1; 3-2-1, -5 ATS)
19. Oklahoma (4-1; 3-2, -14 ATS)
20. Georgia (4-1; 1-4, -23 ATS)
21. Oregon (5-0; 1-4, -44 ATS)
TIER FOUR
22. Army (5-0; 5-0, +83 ATS)
23. Navy (5-0; 4-1, +69 ATS)
24. Tennessee (4-1; 4-1, +68 ATS)
25. Illinois (4-1; 4-1, +50 ATS)

There's a top-five matchup next week according to the national media, but neither team in it is in my top five. This once again just shows that you need to play quality teams for me to consider you as one of the best.

We'll see you again at some point. Make sure you're registered to vote and have a voting plan!

Yeah, Why Not. Another Year of the FBS Top 25.

I think I tried to do this on Tik Tok last year, and after two or three weeks I gave up. May have shared it to Facebook a few times too? Who knows. It all blurs together.

There were precisely EIGHTEEN Power Four teams who took on the challenge of playing against similar competition coming out of the gate this year. They're all getting rewarded. If you put up 76 points on an FCS team, just shut up (looking at you, Ole Miss).

I tried to tweak my formula this year so losers of P4 v P4 games had a higher ranking than winners of P4 v Group of 5 (still throwing me off that there's only 4 major conferences now, but whatever). It didn't quite work out this week, but I still did get a couple losers in the top 25.

Boston College proved that Florida State was only a healthy quarterback away from being able to hold their own in the playoff last year. Oh wait, the Seminoles lost 9 other starters to the draft too? But that doesn't fit the narrative! (Colin Hackley // AP)

1. Boston College (1-0, 1 P4 win, 1-0/+32 ATS)
2. Miami (FL) (1-0, 1 P4 win, 1-0/+22)
3. Georgia (1-0, 1 P4 win, 1-0/+21)
4. Vanderbilt (1-0, 1 P4 win, 1-0/+21)
5. Penn State (1-0, 1 P4 win, 1-0/+15)
6. Notre Dame (1-0, 1 P4 win, 1-0/+13)
7. USC (1-0, 1 P4 win, 1-0/+11)
8. North Carolina (1-0, 1 P4 win, 0-0-1/+0)
9. TCU (1-0, 1 P4 win, 0-1/-1)
10. Georgia Tech (2-0, 1 P4 win, 2-0/+15)
11. Arizona State (1-0, 1 G5 win, 1-0/+35)
12. Alabama (1-0, 1 G5 win, 1-0/+29)
13. Maryland (1-0, 1 G5 win, 1-0/+25)
14. UNLV (1-0, 1 P4 win, 1-0/+24)
15. Texas (1-0, 1 G5 win, 1-0/+17)
16. Pittsburgh (1-0, 1 G5 win, 1-0/+8)
17. Nebraska (1-0, 1 G5 win, 1-0/+6)
18. Kentucky (1-0, 1 G5 win, 1-0/+6)
19. Oklahoma (1-0, 1 G5 win, 1-0/+5)
20. Northwestern (1-0, 1 G5 win, 1-0/+4)
21. Stanford (0-1, 1 P4 loss, 1-0/+1)
22. Minnesota (0-1, 1 P4 loss, 0-0-1/+0)
23. Michigan (1-0, 1 G5 win, 0-1/-1)
24. Syracuse (1-0, 1 G5 win, 0-1/-1)
25. Indiana (1-0, 1 G5 win, 0-1/-1)

With 9 of these teams playing FCS opponents this week (including 7 of the top 9), and an additional 5 going just a step higher in difficulty with a Group of 5 foe, this list will be dramatically different next week. Such is the way my system works.

See you here then. Or not. Like I said, who even knows at this point.

(Disclaimer, I'm not having an existential crisis or anything. Work is just ridiculously busy in the best possible way, so I literally have no way of knowing what I'll be able to get done outside of that on a weekly or even daily basis. Stay blessed fam!)

Song of the Day: January 30, 2024

Remember back when I didn't have three very awesome jobs, I was in a serious life depression, and I used to share music I was digging on this site that two people ever visit?

Well, life is good and I stay busy, but I thought I'd bring back an exclusive, once-in-a-decade Song Of The Day post to evoke those days. Also, this one is just SO GOOD.

Last night at dinner, the family sat down to watch the Netflix documentary on the recording of the smash 1985 single "We Are The World." Everyone who was anyone in the mid-80s (well, except for Madonna and Prince) was involved in this recording, which was marketed both to promote and provide funding for the hunger crisis in Africa.

The documentary is called "The Greatest Night In Pop" and it tells the story of how 40-plus musicians in their prime spent a whirlwind nine-hour recording session right after the 1984-85 American Music Awards creating what would eventually become one of the best-selling singles of all time.

There are many memorable moments in the 96-minute documentary, from encounters between Lionel Richie and Michael Jackson's numerous pets to Waylon Jennings walking out of the session after Stevie Wonder suggested including African phrases in the song to cater to a more global audience.

Without a doubt, however, my absolute favorite moment in the session came after the all-star chorus was finished recording, and producer Quincy Jones made sure to recognize then-living legend Harry Belafonte for his pioneering work in using music to advance social causes.

Al Jarreau, Smokey Robinson, Stevie Wonder, and others then led the who's-who group of singers in an impromptu singing of Belafonte's signature single "Day-O (The Banana Boat Song)" as a tribute to the legendary singer and social justice advocate.

The following clip was surely used in the documentary, as it was recorded as part of the song's Grammy, VMA, People's Choice, and AMA-winning music video. The specific clip, however, seems to come from a newscast after the song's release. Before watching, know that the assembled artists take until around the 42 second mark to really get going, and around the 1:14 mark to really get in sync:

Among my favorite highlights: In a song that is described on its Wikipedia page as "a traditional Jamaican folk song," you may expect the less-pigmented superstars in the ensemble to not be as enthusiastic participants. Case in point Bob Dylan, who the documentary paints as someone who was having trouble finding his groove throughout the session until he was essentially isolated during his solo recording moment.

However, I have to shout out Kenny Rogers clapping along enthusiastically during Jarreau and Wonders' verses, and singing loudly and proudly at every repetition of "Daylight come and me wanna go home." Considering what happened with another country star involved in the recording (as previously mentioned), it's absolutely worth noting Rogers' apparently unbridled allyship in this moment.

As for Jarreau, the documentary notes that he was sufficiently inebriated during the session ("He was celebrating," said one of the interview subjects, I believe Lionel Richie), so it makes total sense that after an initial pseudo-power struggle with Motown legend Smokey Robinson, Jarreau took over as the lead verse-singer in the group, and enthusiastically so.

The undeniable highlight of the jam session, however, is when Stevie Wonder takes over singing of the verses. "If you have too much, y'all have to stay," one of my all-time musical icons sings, "because you'll have to be driven home by me or Ray [Charles]!".

If you know anything about Wonder or Charles, this line will make you roll on the floor in laughter. Also, note Robinson's reaction just a beat or two later.

I'm not 100 percent positive, but based on the documentary USA For Africa may still be using proceeds from this song to eradicate hunger in the third-world. So if you wouldn't mind streaming We Are The World a few million times on your favorite platform, you might be able to make a difference in the world!

That's it for this one. For my long-time Universe fans, I'm trying to get an NFL post up before the Super Bowl so stay tuned!

Peace and love to all.

-Clayton

Post-publication note 1: It is an all-time dream of mine to be included in something like this. Not with that caliber of music star, I am totally aware that will never happen. But with any certain group. I got close to it last year, but I still think it could have been better.

2023 NFL Midseason Predictions

What's up 22 readers! The season is two months old, so let's see if my quarter season predictions are holding up or if I've changed my ideas about who's going to be left standing at the end after another month of football. Small disclaimer, I began working on this before the Thursday night game, which I of course picked incorrectly. I'm leaving that pick incorrect for the integrity of this project and for the sake of laziness in not wanting to restart.

Starting in the AFC...

Playing with a determination like none other, Joe Burrow will emerge as the 2023 NFL MVP. (Michael Hickey // Getty)

EAST
1. Miami - 12-5
2. Buffalo - 11-6
3. NY Jets - 7-10
4. New England - 6-11
I kept the Jets at 7-10, but other than that there is a lot of change from quarter-season. That includes swapping Buffalo for Miami atop the division. Both teams will drop three of their last nine, but it will ultimately be Miami coming out on top after winning the very last game of the regular season - a typical primetime struggle for Josh Allen. The Jets will have faint playoff hopes until around Christmas, and New England will find four more wins in an otherwise forgettable season. 

WEST

1. Kansas City - 12-5
2. Denver - 7-10
3. LA Chargers - 7-10
4. Las Vegas - 7-10

Call it the Taylor Swift Effect, call it Travis Kelce is literally Kansas City's only offensive weapon. Regardless, the Chiefs will drop three more, including one to a team they should beat easily on paper, but still hold on to what is still a miserable division. I didn't even bother tiebreaking the three 7-10 teams; the main surprise here from the start of the season is Denver. After the back-to-back wins to close out October, I think they have it in them to win at least a couple more; they may even go my predicted 4-5 down the stretch.

NORTH

1. Cincinnati - 13-4
2. Baltimore - 12-5
3. Pittsburgh - 10-7
4. Cleveland - 8-9
In stark contrast to the West, the AFC North is probably top-to-bottom the best division in the NFL this year. Last month, I predicted the Bengals to come back from 3-7 to snag a wild card spot. The Cardiac Cats are already 4-3, and I truly believe they could run the table or just drop one game to not only claim the division from Baltimore in Week 18, but also earn a first-round bye in the playoffs. I'm giving the Ravens and Steelers both wild card berths in this prognostication, while the Browns will end the season on a three-game skid and get knocked out of the postseason in the final week.

SOUTH

1. Jacksonville - 11-6
2. Tennessee - 7-10

3. Indianapolis - 7-10

4. Houston - 6-11

At the start of October, I predicted 10 wins for the Jaguars. At 6-2 through the halfway point, 11 wins seems like a fair final tally. Will Levis has some catching up to do if he wants to be in the Rookie of the Year conversation that a month ago started and ended with C.J. Stroud, but it's possible. I'm not keen on either of them for the award, however; more on that later. Nothing super exciting will happen for the rest of the season for Tennessee, Houston, and Indianapolis; a win or two here, two or three losses there, keep focusing on developing young talent.

The AFC playoff picture hasn't changed much since quarter-season as far as who's in, the only switch out I did was Pittsburgh for Cleveland. The seeding has significantly changed. The first overall seed will be the Bengals; Kansas City, Miami, and Jacksonville will host wild card games. The wild card seeds from fifth through seventh will be Baltimore, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh.

Now, for the NFC.

I'm picking Puka for this year's top rookie. (Kyle Terada // USA Today)

EAST

1. Philadelphia - 14-3
2. Dallas - 13-4
3. Washington - 5-12
4. NY Giants - 4-13

I was right about Philadelphia being the last unbeaten team, although I gave them their first loss a week later than they actually got it. I don't think there is a question whatsoever that the Eagles are the best team in the NFL this year. I have Dallas finishing with a couple more wins now than I did a month ago; the offense concerns me but the opportunistic Cowboys defense is so much fun to watch. I gave the Commanders significantly fewer wins than I did in quarter-season, and the Giants exactly the same.

WEST

1. San Francisco - 12-5
2. Seattle - 11-6
3. LA Rams - 5-12
4. Arizona - 5-12
The 49ers are clearly no longer the best team in the NFL as I predicted a month ago, making the race for the West much, much more interesting. At this point it could go to either San Francisco or Seattle. This will give their two matchups, just 17 days apart, shades of the iconic NFC West rivalry of a decade ago. I still have the 49ers righting the ship and prevailing ultimately. Puka Nacua is my current pick for Rookie of the Year; whereas Stroud's production has dipped off Nacua has remained a consistent receiving threat for a Rams team in an otherwise forgettable season. Currently sitting at 1-7, the Cardinals will somehow pick up four wins to mess up the tank and avoid the top pick in the draft.

NORTH

1. Detroit - 14-3
2. Chicago - 6-11
3. Minnesota - 5-12
4. Green Bay - 4-13

The Lions are the chief beneficiary of an already-weak NFC North whose bottom has recently fallen out thanks in part to the most-mourned injury of the season to dote and the Packers being just about the worst team of the past few weeks. Detroit could plausibly even win the whole division on Thanksgiving if the Vikings fail to win all month without Kirk Cousins. The Bears, currently with the worst record in the division, will go 4-5 down the stretch to win the coveted prize of distant second. In what's probably the biggest overreaction of 2023, the Vikings win just one more game all season. The Packers will just continue to be garbage.

SOUTH

1. Tampa Bay - 10-7
2. New Orleans - 10-7
3. Atlanta - 8-9
4. Carolina - 3-14
I started tracking the playoff picture in Week 12 of this prediction, and in alternating weeks the NFC South had New Orleans leading with Atlanta in a wild card spot or Tampa Bay leading with New Orleans the at-large. Ultimately the second scenario is what played out as the Falcons lose their last three games in classic Dirty Bird fashion. Carolina will ultimately secure the worst record in the NFL and allow Chicago the top pick in the 2024 draft thanks to the "brilliant" Bryce Young trade.

The playoff picture in the NFC is even more similar to quarter-season than the AFC. New Orleans will replace Minnesota and the division winner seeding will change slightly. Most significantly, Philadelphia gets the first round bye. Detroit, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay will be the second through fourth seeds hosting fifth through seventh seeds Dallas, Seattle, and New Orleans in the wild card round.

Now on to my predictions for the postseason!

In the wild card round, Pittsburgh will keep it close in the first half, but the Chiefs will ultimately overpower a young Steelers team still finding their identity. In a rematch of the Week 18 game that gave Miami a playoff home game, big-game Josh Allen will come through once again. He'll turn the ball over four times as the Greatest Show on Surf notches its first postseason victory. In another tough day for a quarterback that can't win in the clutch, the Jaguars will stifle Lamar Jackson to cap off an AFC wild card weekend dominated by the division champs.

In the NFC, Derek Carr and the Saints will be no match for the roaring Dan Campbell Lions. 49ers-Seahawks will have a trilogy segment, just like it always seemed to during that all-time great rivalry of the early 2010s. The road team will come out on top, not allowing Brock Purdy's playoff magic to extend to his sophomore campaign. Down in West Florida (and one of the all-time great NFL uniform matchups; I just love that red and pewter of Tampa against the white and silver of Dallas), the Cowboys defense will absolutely bewilder Baker Mayfield for an easy road win.

After nearly running the table to earn a rest week, Cincinnati might end up being too rested when the Juggernaut Jaguars come to town. Trevor Lawrence and company will bewilder the Bengals and 2023 NFL MVP Burrow will be denied his annual postseason meetup with 2022 MVP Patrick Mahomes. Speaking (now) of Mahomes, the AFC's other Florida squad will meet its end in chilly Arrowhead stadium as Kansas City, also thanks to the Bengals' loss, will get to host its sixth straight AFC title game. Hosting their second straight NFC Championship will be the Eagles, who benefit from the bye week to dismantle the Seahawks. The Cowboys' defense will run out of miracles against Detroit, who will stymie the mediocre Dallas offense to win two playoff games in a season for the first time since 1957 and advance to just the second NFC Championship game in franchise history.

Second seed Kansas City will host its aforementioned sixth straight battle for the Lamar Hunt Trophy against fourth seed Jacksonville, in the Championship for the fourth time in franchise history. The top-seeded Eagles will also be in a familiar spot trying to win their second straight George Halas Trophy against a famously starved second-seeded Lions squad. If either of the underdogs come out on top, it will make for their first Super Bowl appearance.

Instead, it will be the favorites winning both championships. Detroit will scratch and claw with every last ounce of intensity, but the Eagles have just enough talent and experience to survive what will surely be an instant classic. The Chiefs will continue to show vulnerability, but just like in Philly's case, Kansas City's championship pedigree will show through in an AFC Championship Game that is inexplicably closer than it probably should be.

Super Bowl LVIII will become just the second time in NFL history that two teams will face each other in back-to-back Super Bowls. Unlike the last time, when Dallas beat Buffalo in both Super Bowls XXVII and XXVIII, last year's loser will come out on top. Now even more than at the start of October, I am all in on the Eagles winning it all in February. They'll have a hiccup or two in the regular season, but once the dust is settled, there is no other team I can see within striking distance of Philadelphia.

It's all about the Shove - in fact, Jason Kelce for Super Bowl MVP! (Kevork Djansezian // AP)

Oh, and the Eras Tour is in Tokyo on Super Bowl Sunday so the Chiefs won't have their good luck charm.

2023 NFL Quarter-Season Predictions!

I have a random Tuesday after the first month of the NFL season with little paid work to do, so here comes my first football blog of 2023-24. I've done this before, look it up if you want, but here are my standings and playoff predictions for the NFL season after each team has played four games.

Starting in the AFC...

EAST
1. Buffalo - 14-3
2. Miami - 11-6
3. New England - 8-9
4. NY Jets - 7-10
The Bills got smoked in week one, but after their last three games including a smackdown of Miami Sunday, it's safe to say the division still runs through Orchard Park. The Dolphins' high flying offense will keep them in the hunt; they'll make the tournament in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2001. Belichick will somehow find a way to coax eight wins out of a moribund Pats squad. The wins will start coming for Zach Wilson, but not enough to get Gang Green out of the division cellar.

WEST

1. Kansas City - 13-4
2. LA Chargers - 7-10
3. Las Vegas - 6-11
4. Denver - 3-14

The weakest division in football should be wrapped up between Thanksgiving and Hannukah this year, despite the Chiefs showing potential flaws in both of their primetime tests to date. The defending champs will have glaring question marks heading into the playoffs, with regular season losses to Buffalo and Cincinnati tarnishing their record. The Chargers and Raiders will be largely insignificant throughout 2023, and Denver will recover from their Week 4 Tank Bowl loss to ultimately recapture the worst record in the league. Broncos country, let's ride.

NORTH

1. Baltimore - 11-6
2. Cincinnati - 10-7
3. Cleveland - 9-8
4. Pittsburgh - 8-9
I like Baltimore coming out of the AFC North. They've been clicking throughout September and have relatively favorable odds going forward. Despite looking absolutely atrocious in the first month, I'm going to call a massive second-half turnaround for Cincinnati. The Bengals will bottom out at 3-7 before winning seven straight to safely secure a wild card spot. Cleveland will be competitive in every single contest with its league-best defense, ultimately securing the final AFC playoff spot by virtue of a Week 3 win over Tennessee.

SOUTH

1. Jacksonville - 10-7
2. Tennessee - 9-8

3. Houston - 7-10

4. Indianapolis - 6-11

Improvement is the theme throughout the AFC South. The Jaguars will still come out on top, but with one more win in 2023 than in 2022. Tennessee will be the last team eliminated from the AFC playoff picture as the only multi-game win or loss streak the Titans have all season will be a two-game win streak interrupted by their Week 7 bye. Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud will give Texans fans hope for the future, and Colts management will make Indianapolis fans concerned for Anthony Richardson's future. Regardless, both lower-tier South teams get more wins than they had last season.

The AFC's first round bye will go to Buffalo, with Kansas City, Baltimore, and Jacksonville respectively hosting divisional round games. Miami, Cincinnati, and Cleveland will serve as fifth-through-seventh seeds in the 2023-24 postseason.

Now, for the NFC.

EAST

1. Philadelphia - 13-4
2. Dallas - 11-6
3. Washington - 9-8
4. NY Giants - 4-13

This division is Philly's to lose, and they will not. The Eagles will be the last undefeated team in the NFL, making it to 6-0 before the ghosts of '72 help Miami beat them in a Sunday night shootout. A second primetime loss, a flexed-up week 13 contest against San Francisco, will ultimately cost Philadelphia the top seed in the conference. Dallas's defense will get the Cowboys to their third straight postseason, but the Cowboys' offense will help ensure it is just as a wild card participant. Washington will miss out on the playoffs on a tiebreaker, and the Giants will take a massive step backwards to a top-five draft pick.

WEST

1. San Francisco - 13-4
2. Seattle - 10-7
3. LA Rams - 7-10
4. Arizona - 4-13
The 49ers are the best team in the NFC, possibly the NFL, and will remain so throughout the regular season. They'll get the number one seed on an aforementioned tiebreak, but it will a well-earned first-round bye for the most complete team in pro football. I heard a radio host last night say Seattle could be 9-1 heading into their Thanksgiving showdown with the Niners, but I think the Hawks will drop two games by then and finish as the NFC's second wild card team with a tough slate of games down the stretch. The Rams are another middle of the road team, and the Cardinals' tank will fail thanks to three more wins against teams that, like Dallas in Week 3, vastly outmatch them on paper.

NORTH

1. Detroit - 11-6
2. Minnesota - 9-8
3. Green Bay - 9-8
4. Chicago - 4-13

If the Eagles and 49ers make up the top tier of the NFC, the Lions are surely just one ledge below. Detroit won't necessarily cruise to the Kingship of the North, but it'll lead the race the whole way. Someway, somehow, Minnesota will do the unthinkable and become the first team in a 17-game season to turn an 0-3 start into a playoff berth, beating out the Packers with a head-to-head sweep, and the Commanders on a conference record tiebreaker. After falling to 1-12, Chicago will inexplicably win three of its final four games to fall out of the top draft pick in 2024.

SOUTH

1. Tampa Bay - 9-8
2. Atlanta - 8-9
3. New Orleans - 8-9
4. Carolina - 4-13
The winner of the South will once again be Tampa, this time with a winning record (if only barely). As per usual, the teams in this division will eat each other up so multiple teams finish right around .500 and within a game or two of each other. This time the stepsisters missing out on the ball are the Saints and Falcons, while the Panthers remain among the league's worst teams.

As previously mentioned, San Francisco will emerge as the number one seed in the NFC, followed by Philadelphia, Detroit, and Tampa Bay as division winners and Dallas, Seattle, and feel-good Minnesota in the wild card positions.

Now on to my predictions for the postseason!

In the wild card round, the defending champs will continue to look mortal against the impressive Browns defense. The Chiefs will nonetheless with the low-scoring, likely one-score game. Over in Baltimore, Cincinnati's hot streak will continue in the very place it began. Lamar Jackson's playoff ineptitude continue as Joe Cool makes the Ravens look more like common cowbirds. A thriller will take place in the third AFC wild card game, as Doug Pederson's Duval Defense is able to slow down Miami just enough to get a relatively high-scoring win.

On the NFC side of things, the Vikings' magic runs out quick when they come up against the defending conference champions. It will be over early, so early that Nick Sirianni will give his starters a rest before the game wraps up. In a rematch of a week 2 classic, Seattle ends up on top a second time. The Lions will be more competitive than their NFC North counterparts but their lack of playoff experience will ultimately show. Lastly, Dallas will have yet another defense-outscores-everyone-else sort of game with multiple touchdown returns against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.

Side note I only realized halfway into the wild card segment, I predicted all three Florida teams making the playoffs. Hmm.

In the divisional round, 2023 really starts looking just like 2022. The Bengals will go into Buffalo and upset the Bills. The Chiefs will look good beating Jacksonville. After a dreadful first half, the 49ers will shake off all the rust from resting in Week 18 when there was nothing left to clinch as well as during the wild card round. The resulting comeback will send Seattle home and San Francisco on to a NFC Championship rematch with the Eagles. After a regular season split with the Cowboys, the home team winning both games, Philadelphia will once again own Dallas at the Linc. Unlike in the regular season, the divisional round matchup won't be close.

For those following, this of course sets up the first time in NFL history both conference championship games are a rematch of the previous year's, as well as only the third time in league history the same two teams have played in three straight conference title games (the previous being Pittsburgh and Oakland in the '70s and San Francisco and Dallas in the '90s). In addition, Kansas City will extend their record streak of AFC title games hosted as Cincinnati will travel to Arrowhead Stadium for the third straight contest for the Lamar Hunt Trophy.

This season's NFC Championship will be much closer than 2022-23's; however, it will be the Eagles earning their second straight trip to the Super Bowl after avenging their regular season loss to the 

49ers. In the Midwest, Joe Burrow and the Bengals will improve to 5-1 all-time against Mahomes and the Chiefs, winning their 10th straight game in an upset to reach their second Super Bowl in three years.

In Vegas, the past two Super Bowl losers will meet up for the first time in history. The Bengals will show the grit and determination that helped them come back from a 3-7 record to win the Lamar Hunt Trophy, but ultimately it will be the Philadelphia Eagles hoisting the Vince Lombardi as the confetti falls in Allegiant Stadium. The Eagles' young core of Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and D'Andre Swift will lead the charge; Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox's Hall of Fame legacies will become secured as they join fellow Eagles lifers Brandon Graham and Lane Johnson as two-time champs.

Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown will ascend the mountaintop in February, taking Fletcher Cox on his second trip. (Tim Nwachukwu // Getty)

I might do this again at midseason, I might not.

I've never been right once. Sorry Eagles fans.